Read on Twitter
NEW THREAD 
PLAN CONTINUATION BIAS & CONSERVATISM BIAS
Here’s why you shouldn’t let these biases influence your transfer plans for GW2 (unless you’ve already made them
)
RTs appreciated
#FPLCommunity #FPL #FPLPsychology
PLAN CONTINUATION BIAS & CONSERVATISM BIAS
Here’s why you shouldn’t let these biases influence your transfer plans for GW2 (unless you’ve already made them
) RTs appreciated
#FPLCommunity #FPL #FPLPsychology
Plan continuation bias is the failure to recognise that the original plan of action is no longer appropriate for a changing situation or for a situation that is different than anticipated (William, 2011).
Another similar definition is the tendency for people to continue with an original course of action that is no longer viable.
Ah, you’re already seeing how this links to FPL aren’t you?
Essentially, the plan continuation bias perfect aligns with ‘planned transfers’ in FPL
Ah, you’re already seeing how this links to FPL aren’t you?
Essentially, the plan continuation bias perfect aligns with ‘planned transfers’ in FPL
My own personal example is that I have always set up my team to go from Ings to Martial for GW2 (£0.5m itb). This plan has never changed.
However, seeing Dele Alli pulled off at half-time in a piss poor Spurs performance changes things!
However, seeing Dele Alli pulled off at half-time in a piss poor Spurs performance changes things!
Suffering from plan continuation bias, I would have made the Martial transfer on Saturday night, or ignored the Alli situation and made the transfer regardless, as “this was always my plan”.
However, being aware of this bias, and engaging in reflective processes, I have considered changing my initial course of action. Here are my two options:
Ings to Martial (leave Alli)
Ings/Alli to DCL/Rashford (-4)
Ings to Martial (leave Alli)
Ings/Alli to DCL/Rashford (-4)
I am not going to sit here and suggest that that the latter transfers would be better than the former.
However, being aware of plan continuation bias allows me to identify other possible strategies, rather than being bogged down with my default choice!
However, being aware of plan continuation bias allows me to identify other possible strategies, rather than being bogged down with my default choice!
Here is a tweet from one of my favourite accounts that shows successful avoidance of the plan continuation bias! Well done @FplStrategy 
https://twitter.com/fplstrategy/status/1305444285081415680
https://twitter.com/fplstrategy/status/1305444285081415680
Finally, closely correlated to the plan continuation bias is the conservatism bias. This can be defined as the tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence (Edwards, 1968).
In other words, with conservatism bias, we do not effectively utilise new information to update our plan. Bringing this back to my own strategy, I have avoided conservatism bias by processing and accepting the new evidence relating to Alli (out) and DCL (in potentially).
CONCLUSION (1/3): Therefore, these two biases are inherently linked in FPL! By avoiding conservatism bias (that is, utilising the new, useful information from GW1), we are encouraged to question, challenge, and adapt our original plan, thereby avoiding plan continuation bias.
It is important to note that often our original plan is the most effective one, and could result in better points than our new plan.
This thread is not aimed to make you ditch your original plan! Instead, it is aimed to encourage you to challenge pre-mediated plans... (2/3)
This thread is not aimed to make you ditch your original plan! Instead, it is aimed to encourage you to challenge pre-mediated plans... (2/3)
...and to always be willing to accept new information, and adapt accordingly.
By ignoring/rejecting new information (conservatism bias), we run the risk of blindly following our original plan, which may no longer be viable (plan continuation bias) (3/3).
By ignoring/rejecting new information (conservatism bias), we run the risk of blindly following our original plan, which may no longer be viable (plan continuation bias) (3/3).
These cognitive biases, along with multiple other psychological concepts, will be discussed in my team selection and gameweek reveal articles posted weekly on http://fplconnect.blog 
So follow @FPL_Connect and keep an eye out for more #FPLPsychology
So follow @FPL_Connect and keep an eye out for more #FPLPsychology
