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THREAD on the very deep hole the USA finds itself in, & how, if history indeed repeats itself, it will try to get out of it.
I was going to write new, detailed info about the Yellow Vest movement, but I realised it may bore many. So instead I will write about the wider picture.
I was going to write new, detailed info about the Yellow Vest movement, but I realised it may bore many. So instead I will write about the wider picture.
2. I am sure that most know about what the Federal Reserve has been doing as of late. And I am sure that most know that it leads to hyperinflation. But some seem to think it will lead to stagflation first, and then giga-inflation later.
I agree with the latter.
I agree with the latter.
3. Sadly, many websites like to peddle fear porn and affirm every day that the US economy is going to suddenly collapse like an avalanche.
This is nonsense. It will not just collapse like an imploding star. It will be gradual and happen over a long period of time. But how long?
This is nonsense. It will not just collapse like an imploding star. It will be gradual and happen over a long period of time. But how long?
4. In very simple terms: the big hyperinflation wave caused by the Fed’s covid QE fiat injections, not to mention the rot from the earlier 2007 mess, will start to touch shore in about 7-10 years from now. Until then - stagflation. BUT, the Q is: can the Fed mitigate this?
5. If to take Japan as an example, we can see that an economy that is truly rotten-to-the-core on paper can actually seem to be okay. Infrastructure functions normally, technology is still being developed, etc. Nothing scary. Will the Fed be able to replicate this in the USA?
6. In 2024 I strongly suspect Trump Jr will run for President. Who the Dems will put forward is anyone’s guess. At this time a new era of US politics will begin, but the stagflation problem will continue unabated. To be clear: the damage the Fed inflicted is 110% irreversible.
7. Will Trump Sr & Jr be able to fully drain the swamp by 2030? I doubt it. After all, what has Trump Sr done in 4 years? Anyone been jailed? Nope. Big Tech, Clinton, Biden, Obama etc are untouchable. But this isn’t to say that alliances won't shift or some draining won't happen.
8. My deep feeling is that there will be endless stagflation until literally the horse has died and flogging any more is physically impossible. To stop this, Trump has to choke the MIC and bring all US troops back home. Again, the odds are seriously stacked against him.
9. A list of interesting links about how the MIC is a revolving door of former military spooks who have connections in government:
https://blog.executivebiz.com/2020/03/retired-gen-raymond-odierno-joins-honeywell-board-of-directors/
https://www.citizensforethics.org/the-real-scandal-involving-generals-pentagon-revolving-door/
https://publicintegrity.org/national-security/generals-no-longer-retire-to-vermont-they-lobby-for-contractors-in-washington/
https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/06/05/DOD-Retirees-From-4-star-General-to-7-Figure-Income
http://archive.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/12/26/defense_firms_lure_retired_generals/ https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/education-transition/jobs/2015/01/06/amos-joins-board-of-directors-for-defense-contractor/
https://blog.executivebiz.com/2020/03/retired-gen-raymond-odierno-joins-honeywell-board-of-directors/
https://www.citizensforethics.org/the-real-scandal-involving-generals-pentagon-revolving-door/
https://publicintegrity.org/national-security/generals-no-longer-retire-to-vermont-they-lobby-for-contractors-in-washington/
https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/06/05/DOD-Retirees-From-4-star-General-to-7-Figure-Income
http://archive.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/12/26/defense_firms_lure_retired_generals/ https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/education-transition/jobs/2015/01/06/amos-joins-board-of-directors-for-defense-contractor/
10. https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2020/03/the-chairman-of-the-revolving-door/
All these links show how the MIC actually works vis-a-vis its lobbying power and total control over US foreign policy. So yeah, draining this part of the swamp is more than an uphill battle.
All these links show how the MIC actually works vis-a-vis its lobbying power and total control over US foreign policy. So yeah, draining this part of the swamp is more than an uphill battle.
11. So, how can the USA climb out of this deep hole? Well, the same way it has done it multiple times in the past: world war.
The fruits of the plundering the US did of Europe after WW2 - which is why the Anglos provoked it in the first place - have run out.
The fruits of the plundering the US did of Europe after WW2 - which is why the Anglos provoked it in the first place - have run out.
12. In order to compensate for stagflation and an empty piggy bank, the USA needs to provoke another world war, so it can once again loot Europe and palm off its toxic debt. A reshuffling of the cards, as it were. Problem: in the 21st C, it’s not possible.
13. Russia & China are too powerful, so a direct clash is out of the question. This leaves only 1 option: a hybrid conflict on European soil. For example, it can involve a rehash of ISIS - with an epicentre in Bosnia/ Kosovo/Albania, thus trigging takfiri cells in Western Europe.
14. Again, this is just an example. The most important takeaway here is that the “world war” has to be non-nuclear and must happen on EU soil. Maybe it will involve Germany again, since the USA likes to encircle it every time it floats out of its orbit & flirts with Russia.
15. I stress: the USA is left with no choice but to reset its economy. But it doesn’t mean it will happen any time soon. As I said, it can be in 10 years, when the brunt of the Fed’s f*ckery really starts to hit home. But something serious has to be done nevertheless.
16. From Trump’s perspective, the ideal scenario is to use the model imposed on Japan - use all manner of dirty economic tricks to at least preserve the facade that everything is okay. But this is just buying time. Regardless of what bills he signs, unemployment will not go down.
17. Russia (and China) is not stupid, and has very detailed 20 year forecasts. The movements Russia makes today take into account what will happen in the short, medium, and long term. No decision is made without ticking these 3 boxes. Moscow is very aware of the US’ predicament.
18. For Russia, the aim is to pen the USA in and prevent it from shifting its toxic debt onto Europe via "world war”. So far it is succeeding to assert its influence in Western Europe, but Eastern Europe (limitrophes) are a problem. The USA uses them as a cordon sanitaire.
19. Moscow’s response to this has been to completely cut funding to the limitrophes and let them choke on their own “democracy” and “freedoms” (read: IMF debt + NATO strangulation = USA plundering). USA tried to compensate by grasping at Belarus, but the FSB outplayed the CIA.
20. So once again Germany is back in the spotlight. USA will not allow Berlin-Moscow rapprochement on any conditions. Trump will use all tools to strangle German business and make life for Germans a hell. Concerning this, he and the “deep state” are in agreement.
21. The Kaiser “had to go” because of the Berlin-Baghdad railway & general flirtation with Russia. JP Morgan put Adolf in power, who provided the right conditions for the US to brazenly loot Europe (fill the vacuum) & impose the Bretton Woods system on the globe.
22. What the US does after each world war it provokes:
Transfer debt & dump it onto the rest of the world via various post-war austerity/reparations stuff while simultaneously also crippling the industrial/manufacturing base of any major competitors.
Transfer debt & dump it onto the rest of the world via various post-war austerity/reparations stuff while simultaneously also crippling the industrial/manufacturing base of any major competitors.
23. I haven’t yet even mentioned China, which gives the US another bundle of problems. How to hit Russia and China (this also means Venezuela, Belarus, North Korea) and also appease Israel (and hit Iran) at the same time? Does the US have the resources for all this? No.
24. Russia’s MoD supercomputer (which I’ve written lots about in the past) will try to accurately narrow down the range of movement available to the USA. De-dollarisation is of course an obvious way to shove a stick in the US’ wheels, but there is a need for more flanking.
25. Summary: there is simply no way the US’ economy can continue further without A) massive “deep state” purge, making night of the long knives look like a child’s sandpit quarrel, or B) large-scale “hybrid" war in Europe.
If history wants to repeat itself, it will be option B.
If history wants to repeat itself, it will be option B.
