Some day, Russell Wilson will finally be appropriately rated in dynasty.

Probably the day after he retires, TBH.

Not to put too fine a point on this, but: I get why people prefer Kyler Murray to Russell Wilson. Really, honestly, truly, I do.

But how many years do you think it’s going to be before Kyler Murray passes Wilson in total fantasy value?

Are you willing to wait that long?

Heading into the 2000 season, Rich Gannon was 35 and Tom Brady was 23.

After that point Gannon added 311 points over a waiver replacement, while Brady added 1170 (and counting).

But Brady wouldn’t pass Gannon in fantasy value for EIGHT YEARS. Were you willing to wait that long?

With the full benefit of hindsight and a 20% time discount (which is what I use), 35yo Gannon was a more valuable fantasy QB heading into the 2000 season than the 23yo Brady, who would go on to produce more fantasy value than any QB since 1985 other than Peyton and Brees.

Now, maybe you want to quibble with the time discount I used. (Although here’s a good thought experiment for you if you think it should be lower: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiT35)

But Wilson is 31, not 35. And Kyler Murray is *probably* not the next Tom Brady.

(Huge caveats: San Francisco’s defense might possibly be good at football so let’s not read too much into one game; Kyler Murray is actually projected to be pretty comparable to Wilson in redraft which is very different from Gannon/Brady; etc.)

(More just a general point I wanted to make: when selecting a young guy over an older guy simply because the young guy is younger, ask yourself “How long do I expect it to be before this pick returns a net profit?”

And then ask yourself “Am I willing to wait that long?”)