Ignore the faux-outrage from Remainers on UK stance over NI protocol. EU threatened to hamper & blockade GB=>NI trade. Does anyone really believe EU’s threats are not a provocation to NI unionists & so a threat to peace? /1

Does anyone seriously believe EU’s threats to blockade GB-NI trade are in the spirit of WA / NI protocol & seeking a mutually beneficial deal? EU are not keeping the promises made in NI protocol. /2

Ignore the faux-outrage. UK Govt remains committed to implementing the NI protocol. But an implementation which “respects that NI is an integral part of the UK & UK customs territory”. https://twitter.com/i/status/1304105249758752768 /3

UK Govt described it’s approach for a light-touch implementation of NI protocol back in May 2020. None of this is news or a surprise to the EU. /4 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-approach-to-the-northern-ireland-protocol/the-uks-approach-to-the-northern-ireland-protocol

UK Govt posted “moving goods under NI protocol” in Aug 2020, introducing the “Trader Support Service” to deal directly w/ customs & minimise info from traders (much already found in VAT records / shipping manifests). /5 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/moving-goods-under-the-northern-ireland-protocol/moving-goods-under-the-northern-ireland-protocol-introduction

UK goods standards will remain identical to EU’s on 1.1.21. Since UK officials will check goods in both GB & NI, UK officials at Irish Sea will only need to check goods where there is GB/NI divergence – likely to remain minimal. /6

The fact that UK SPS stds will remain identical to EU’s on 1.1.21, gives lie to Barnier’s excuse as to why EU will refuse standard 3rd country recognition of UK establishments (farms etc). As called out by Lord Frost. /7 https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1305121859860598786

EU gives standard 3rd country recognition of establishments to countries round the world w/o any requirement for regulatory alignment. US meat & poultry farms have such recognition. EU’s stance to GB establishments is indefensible. /8
https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/sanco/traces/output/US/PM_US_en.pdf

Cut to the chase. EU is trying to blackmail UK via Irish Sea border in order to force UK to accept EU’s terms on LPF, State Aid & fish. UK (rightly) is having none of it and will implement a light-touch NI protocol with or without EU’s co-operation or FTA. /9

EU’s hypocrisy on State Aid is skewered by Yanis Varoufakis. EU have essentially abandoned the State Aid rules that they are trying to impose on UK. /10 https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1304691287891693568

Cut to the chase. EU will reluctantly agree to LPF & State Aid judged on outcomes, i.e. demonstration of unfair competition, not alignment to EU rules. Binding Arbitration via independent panel, not ECJ. /11

UK will agree standard non-regression clause on envt/labour (as per EU-Canada). UK will include services in State Aid, if EU agree MRA proff. Qualifications + standard 3rd country equivalence decisions (Fin svcs, Data Protection). /12

In short, I now see a deal as far more likely. EU has everything to lose from No Deal. UK will operate light-touch Irish Sea border, EU will have a gaping hole in its precious SM legal order. No deal means no LPF constraint on UK & no fisheries access for EU. /13

Standard 3rd country FTA w/ MRAs on conformity assessment, SPS equivalence, trusted trader + agreements on customs co-op & mkt surveillance will enable light-touch NI protocol on firm legal basis. Some LPF/Fish is better than none for EU. /14

Game, set & match to Frost. Now all that is needed is some theatre to allow EU to pretend they won a “victory” in getting a deal. /end