Things not looking good in the UK (massive understatement). We all need to act like we could have COVID-19 & minimise close physical contact with those outside our household. Need to avoid awful decisions about COVID v non COVID harm.

And if hospitals start filling up with patients arriving needing emergency care, going to put other NHS services at risk. Everyone loses if numbers continue to increase.

I won’t say much more bc I’m sure everyone is sick of my repeating of the same message for months now. But I truly hope we will not pay for all the summer holidays abroad with winter lockdowns. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opinion/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/1...

There was a window of opportunity this summer to go for zero Covid & avoid the current situation. Get back to more normality but with virus largely gone. Instead people were encouraged to go abroad on holidays. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/29/britain-ditches-overseas-travel-coronavirus-spanish-covid-19">https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...

Prof Baker’s NEJM NZ paper: cases first imported -> community transmission takes off (imported cases negligible) -> lockdown measures crunch local transmission. Then new cases largely imported- if these aren’t caught, they set off community transmission again. Back to square 1.