1/ This thread is about long term predictions. It is great. I disagree with the conclusion. Se below: https://twitter.com/shortsightedcap/status/1304862650568933377

2/
Where do we factor long term growth in?
1. SAAS: Yes,
Maybe it is true that this and that software solution will win for many years. I have NO way of knowing. So I stay away.

2. FANGMAN: No!
We actually dont seem to factor in many years of growth. Why not? >>>

3/ If we look to China: New Retail is making so much friction reduction and creating so much value for costumers that they grow and grow. They leverage DATA. FANGMAN has data.
PS: I think many SAAS solutions is just for free for sellers on New Retail ecosystems in China.
>>>

4/ 3. Gaming: No!
But do we think gaming will grow the Next 10 years? Yes, Call me naive but I am willing to bet big that it will. Tailwinds from several secular trends.

5/ 4. Local New Retail ecosystems: No!
$MELI (LatAm), $SE (SEA), $FB (the World outside China), $AMZN (NA)
Is 10 year growth factored in? No!

6/ 5. #L1K and onlinegroceries. Do I think that the new valuechain is cheaper, more evironmental friendly, more conveiniant. Yes! Is growth and potential priced in? Not at all.

7/ There are industries and companies that are being disrupted, and yet they trade at the same multiples as FANGMAN!

8/ I would postulate that the problem is not that the future is hard to predict in the above sectors. I simply think Mr. Market spends to little energy thinking about which direction the World is moving in, and to much time on the numbers and ratios in earnings report

9/ these numbers reflect the present and the past, but not the future.

The future is best assessed by listening to words and visions. Then understanding them.

10/ try to go over these stocks and dont look at the numbers, but listen to their CEOs. Listen to what they say they are building..
FANGMAN
$DHER
$FOOD.TO
$SE
$CVNA
$MELI
$TSLA
$OCDO
$SFTBY
$SNAP
$SPOT
And so many more
Then decide what you think they will be in 10 year>>>

11/ Think in ranges...
Some of them wont be here in 10 years. You loose 100%.
Some of them will succeed. You gain 1000+%
And most will just be sucesses, you gain 500+% (20+% growth)

12/ So call me naive but I think it is possible to give an assesment on what the future holds for companies and pay a premium. I also think a discount should be resonable when the future is uncertain. But in this case, it appears to me that the past is a heavy ‘anker’.

13/ I just wanted to state that I find it relatively easy to asses long term prospects. Not to model them in an excell sheet, but to think about where the World is going and what that will mean for this and that sector or stock. It just takes efforts to focus on it.