Read on Twitter
1/ Why does anyone listen to Fauci? And why give any weight to his predictions about Covid 15 months from now?
We should be skeptical of people with narrow risk perspectives and objectively poor track records.
Let’s take a look at his. https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1304533190133022722
We should be skeptical of people with narrow risk perspectives and objectively poor track records.
Let’s take a look at his. https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1304533190133022722
2/ In late July, Fauci criticized the lax lockdowns in the US and praised more stringent lockdowns in Europe. In doing so he cited completely arbitrary and nonsensical numbers (50% vs 95% lockdowns), but also wrongly claimed Europe had “managed Covid.” https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/dr-fauci-coronavirus-eu-cases-lockdown-us-a9648411.html
3/ But anyone with a flexible mental model of Covid and an eye on trends knew his claims were bogus. Fast forward a month and the situations had reversed. Metrics plummeting in the US as new cases surging in Europe.
Predictable for anyone but Fauci. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/world/europe/coronavirus-second-wave.html
Predictable for anyone but Fauci. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/world/europe/coronavirus-second-wave.html
4/ What did Fauci have to say about the Sunbelt? I think you can guess.
As cases rose there in July, Fauci, again falling back on his mental model about NPI strategies, said they should “look into shutting down again.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-florida-arizona-texas-shut-down-afb8d605-2cd8-450e-91b6-3468bf4dee33.html
As cases rose there in July, Fauci, again falling back on his mental model about NPI strategies, said they should “look into shutting down again.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-florida-arizona-texas-shut-down-afb8d605-2cd8-450e-91b6-3468bf4dee33.html
5/ Media and politicians, of course, jumped on Fauci’s words and hammered GOP governors in the Sunbelt who dared to have comprehensive risk perspectives and implement a semblance of balance. But how’d they do? Here’s Arizona, Florida, and Texas. No shutdowns necessary.
6/ Surely Fauci updated his thinking/mental model after the Sunbelt’s dramatic improvement with minimal restrictions, right? Nope. Here he is still using case numbers after the @nytimes article showing that nearly 90% of PCR cases aren’t infectious. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239096
7/ Perhaps he’s just too busy to read new studies, look at robust global data, recognize repeating global patterns showing burnout at a low threshold, look at empirical evidence, or to consider other risks as American lives are lost and devastated by our response. Maybe.
8/ Or, perhaps he has a penchant for succumbing to and feeding hysterias. Here’s a passage from The Pandemic Century by Honigsbaum. Here we find one Anthony Fauci disregarding the CDC and running with sensationalist and false claims from a bad AIDS study. Enter AIDS Hysteria.
9/ He also comes off quite poorly in And the Band Played On by Shilts. Why? Because he saw a risk, panicked, and did not lead with a level head. He allowed himself to give into fear and to shift away from a comprehensive risk perspective to a dangerous narrow risk perspective.
10/ I ask again, why are letting a bureaucrat like Fauci - who has a track record of making inaccurate predictions, who has an inaccurate and biased mental model of Covid (that he has not updated), and who is *not* assessing risks comprehensively - tell us what do?
No more.
No more.
Edit: Why are *^we^* letting a bureaucrat like Fauci tell us what to do?
11/ But the trouble with Fauci goes on. If we look at outcomes - Covid deaths per million - we see that New York did not fare well. With 33,000 total deaths, many of them from nursing homes, NY had the second most deaths per million (compared to states and nations) at 1,700.
12/ Yet here’s Fauci saying that New York “did it correctly” when assessing states combatting Covid. A place with 1,700 deaths per million is the model other jurisdictions should follow? So Florida, with 600 deaths per million, should’ve mimicked NY? Odd. https://abc7ny.com/covid-19-ny-fauci-anthony-cuomo/6324584/
13/ In praising NY’s approach, he is also revealing that he denies the effects of community immunity. While fair to disagree on the HIT range, it’s patently flawed and startling that he continues to deny robust immunity evidence from all over the world. https://mobile.twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1294324998677639170
