because it seems clear that the media won't, i've updated the US cases adjusted for testing levels charts

when you test more, you find more cases

reporting that data without reference to testing level is tantamount to lying

the "southern season" was tiny compared to the north.

this can be easier to see in % terms

i set both to % of prior peak. "reported" cases peaked at 214% of previous. but this had no epidemiological significance. it was a data artifact from higher sampling rate

the real figure peaked at 59% below the prior peak

big difference

it has now dropped to 18% of prior peak, despite raw data still looking higher than it did in april.

this has been far too elementary a data handling mistake, made not just by media but by health agencies as well, and has gone on far too long to be an accident.

any first year stats student knows this one. in any given datastream, if you double the sampling rate, the raw count doubles.

prevalence is unchanged.

amusingly, alleged epidemiologist eric ding had never even heard the term "sample rate" when i spoke to him.

'nuff said.

this has been a deliberate attempt to make data that was not scary look scary.

while we're on that topic, the other big data misrepresentation has been that of a "second wave" in the US.

this did not happen. period.

it was a first wave in 2 different seasonal zones.

this is a well known/characterized pattern and was 100% to be expected (assuming you knew anything about epidemiology)

the manner in which is has been misrepresented by NIH, CDC, etc must raise serious questions about either their competence or honesty https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1287046371460210688?s=20

no place that has had a significant first wave has had a second.

that's what herd immunity looks like, and the pre-existing cross resistance here makes that threshold 10-25%, not 70.

you can see HIT reached here. it's very clear in the data. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1295716257673641984?s=20

schools are safe. cities are safe. outside of perennial basket case, NY hospitals were never seriously stressed.

we've over-counted cases and deaths by multiples like using a low angle light to make the shadow of a mouse look like an elephant.

it's time to end this charade.

it's also time for a deep, to the roots accounting of how health agencies not only let this happen but cheer-led it, how governors and mayors grabbed so many liberties, and how such astonishingly bad and misleading data was used to drive absurd, pseudo-scientific policy.

we cannot ever even let this be contemplated again.

the whole world knew not to seriously consider this even last year. it was in all the guidelines.

we ignored them and created a haunted house to scare everyone witless.

never again. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280990977964924928?s=20