Read on Twitter
So, it appears a lot of people simply want to forget the sequence of events on COVID/Coronavirus.
Its highly inconvenient to admit who really prevented the world from reacting properly to this scourge.
Its highly inconvenient to admit who really prevented the world from reacting properly to this scourge.
The first cases of COVID19 now appear to have been showing up in Hubei Province in LATE NOVEMBER 2019.
The Chinese at that point didn't realize what they had on their hands. But even then they suspected a new SARS like outbreak.
#COVIDTimeline
The Chinese at that point didn't realize what they had on their hands. But even then they suspected a new SARS like outbreak.
#COVIDTimeline
December 6
China reported the first case with documented date of symptoms. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
China reported the first case with documented date of symptoms. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
December 21
China reports an entire cluster of cases with similar symptoms, starting at a fish market in Wuhan.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/a3907201-f64f-4154-a19e-4253b453d10c
China reports an entire cluster of cases with similar symptoms, starting at a fish market in Wuhan.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/a3907201-f64f-4154-a19e-4253b453d10c
December 21
Almost immediately, Wuhan hospitals notice an exponential increase in cases. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
Almost immediately, Wuhan hospitals notice an exponential increase in cases. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
December 25
The first sign that this was communicable with human-to-human transmission.
Note China has still not reported it to the WHO or CDC (they had agreements after SARS to report to both).
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IzzCnz4Yr2jEIYZePiu_ow
The first sign that this was communicable with human-to-human transmission.
Note China has still not reported it to the WHO or CDC (they had agreements after SARS to report to both).
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IzzCnz4Yr2jEIYZePiu_ow
December 31
Dr. Li Wenliang sent a group messages warning about a new virus.
He would later die from the disease. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30382-2/fulltext
Dr. Li Wenliang sent a group messages warning about a new virus.
He would later die from the disease. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30382-2/fulltext
December 31
The very same day, the WHO reports its first sign of the virus.
Note that this was NOT an official message from the Chinese, but was informally received. The Chinese govt still has not reported this to the WHO. https://www.nationalreview.com/news/who-quietly-changes-covid-timeline-following-republican-questioning/
The very same day, the WHO reports its first sign of the virus.
Note that this was NOT an official message from the Chinese, but was informally received. The Chinese govt still has not reported this to the WHO. https://www.nationalreview.com/news/who-quietly-changes-covid-timeline-following-republican-questioning/
December 31
Again, on the same day, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission goes public and states...there are no human-to-human transmissions (this is now a documented lie).
http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989
Again, on the same day, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission goes public and states...there are no human-to-human transmissions (this is now a documented lie).
http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989
January 1
Wuhan authorities accuse Dr. Li Wenliang (mentioned above) of "spreading rumors", and later force him to apologize for...telling the truth.
Several others are arrested for the same. https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2020/the-2019-coronavirus-virus-lands-in-the-u-s-after-killing-17-and-taking-eight-to-prison/
Wuhan authorities accuse Dr. Li Wenliang (mentioned above) of "spreading rumors", and later force him to apologize for...telling the truth.
Several others are arrested for the same. https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2020/the-2019-coronavirus-virus-lands-in-the-u-s-after-killing-17-and-taking-eight-to-prison/
January 1
Just to tell you how widespread the knowledge that this was spreading and a threat...at this point, almost 200,000 people leave Wuhan to other points in China.
Some fly overseas.
Worldwide seeding begins in earnest. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Just to tell you how widespread the knowledge that this was spreading and a threat...at this point, almost 200,000 people leave Wuhan to other points in China.
Some fly overseas.
Worldwide seeding begins in earnest. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
January 2
A Chinese study shows only about 2/3 of the cases are connected to the fish market; more proof that there is human to human transmission.
Chinese govt...still silent. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
A Chinese study shows only about 2/3 of the cases are connected to the fish market; more proof that there is human to human transmission.
Chinese govt...still silent. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
January 3
The CCP puts out a memorandum that all info on COVID should be hidden, or destroyed. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-of-the-coronavirus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-in-china
The CCP puts out a memorandum that all info on COVID should be hidden, or destroyed. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-of-the-coronavirus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-in-china
January 3
CDC Director Redfield gets an informal call from a Chinese colleague warning him of the virus. This is first documented case where a Western official was informed.
On the same day, Wuhan again states there is no human to human transmission. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html
CDC Director Redfield gets an informal call from a Chinese colleague warning him of the virus. This is first documented case where a Western official was informed.
On the same day, Wuhan again states there is no human to human transmission. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html
January 4
Hong Kong authorities, not directly under the purview of the CCP, warn city leaders that they think the virus is spreading.
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1500994-20200104.htm?
Hong Kong authorities, not directly under the purview of the CCP, warn city leaders that they think the virus is spreading.
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1500994-20200104.htm?
January 6
New York Times first report on the virus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/world/asia/china-SARS-pneumonialike.html?searchResultPosition=4
New York Times first report on the virus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/world/asia/china-SARS-pneumonialike.html?searchResultPosition=4
January 6
CDC sends a team to be on the ground in Wuhan. CCP refuses to allow them on the ground. CDC team in country has been refused access all along.
CDC also issues a level 1 (low level) travel watch for China. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S
CDC sends a team to be on the ground in Wuhan. CCP refuses to allow them on the ground. CDC team in country has been refused access all along.
CDC also issues a level 1 (low level) travel watch for China. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S
January 8
Wuhan continues to deny transmission.
On that date, the WHO...parrots the entire line from the Chinese, without any independent data. https://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china
Wuhan continues to deny transmission.
On that date, the WHO...parrots the entire line from the Chinese, without any independent data. https://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-who-statement-regarding-cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china
January 10
China still denies community spread.
Chinese doctors document numerous cases of family transmission, proving...there is community spread. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext
China still denies community spread.
Chinese doctors document numerous cases of family transmission, proving...there is community spread. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext
January 13
First international documented case, of a Chinese traveler in Thailand.
Japan reports a case 2 days later.
First international documented case, of a Chinese traveler in Thailand.
Japan reports a case 2 days later.
January 15
Wuhan now says they can't prove community spread...but say they can't rule it out.
Remember, this is a full month after they documented community spread.
http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011509040
Wuhan now says they can't prove community spread...but say they can't rule it out.
Remember, this is a full month after they documented community spread.
http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011509040
January 17
The CDC and DHS, not believing denials from WHO and China, declare strict screening for all travelers from Wuhan.
Quickly, cries of racism flourish in US and Europe over this targeting. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/opinions/wuhan-coronavirus-is-fueling-racism-xenophobia-yang/index.html
The CDC and DHS, not believing denials from WHO and China, declare strict screening for all travelers from Wuhan.
Quickly, cries of racism flourish in US and Europe over this targeting. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/opinions/wuhan-coronavirus-is-fueling-racism-xenophobia-yang/index.html
January 18
Wuhan authorities let 40,000 people come together for the annual Lunar New Year Banquet.
Wuhan authorities let 40,000 people come together for the annual Lunar New Year Banquet.
January 21
CDC announces first US case.
CDC announces first US case.
January 22
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continued to praise China’s handling of the outbreak. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continued to praise China’s handling of the outbreak. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus
January 22
That same day, WHO delegation concludes that human to human transmission is occurring. WHO doesn't report it.
Trump also downplays it as 'controllable'. https://www.who.int/china/news/detail/22-01-2020-field-visit-wuhan-china-jan-2020
That same day, WHO delegation concludes that human to human transmission is occurring. WHO doesn't report it.
Trump also downplays it as 'controllable'. https://www.who.int/china/news/detail/22-01-2020-field-visit-wuhan-china-jan-2020
January 23
Chinese start imposing a quarantine on Wuhan and Hubei.
Chinese start imposing a quarantine on Wuhan and Hubei.
January 24
The virus is seen in various cities around the US.
About this time, the Mayor of Florence, Italy, recommends that residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in their fight against COVID (I kid you not).
The virus is seen in various cities around the US.
About this time, the Mayor of Florence, Italy, recommends that residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in their fight against COVID (I kid you not).
January 31
WHO finally, after 6 weeks, issues a Global Health Emergency https://www.ajmc.com/view/what-were-reading-global-health-emergency-declared-jj-pay-in-pelvic-mesh-suit-ban-on-fentanyl-lookalikes
WHO finally, after 6 weeks, issues a Global Health Emergency https://www.ajmc.com/view/what-were-reading-global-health-emergency-declared-jj-pay-in-pelvic-mesh-suit-ban-on-fentanyl-lookalikes
February 4
Under harsh criticism from the Europeans (and some American legislators) Trump imposes restrictions on travel from the EU (excluding UK). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/us/coronavirus-airports.html
Under harsh criticism from the Europeans (and some American legislators) Trump imposes restrictions on travel from the EU (excluding UK). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/us/coronavirus-airports.html
February 3
WHO took 50 days to declare a health emergency. Three days later, the US declares one. https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/what-were-reading-us-declares-coronavirus-a-public-health-emergency-fda-approves-peanut-allergy-drug-california-healthcare-tax-rejected
WHO took 50 days to declare a health emergency. Three days later, the US declares one. https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/what-were-reading-us-declares-coronavirus-a-public-health-emergency-fda-approves-peanut-allergy-drug-california-healthcare-tax-rejected
February 25
CDC declares that COVID is nearing a pandemic level. https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/cdc-warns-that-covid19-is-likely-headed-toward-pandemic-stage-could-affect-us-schools-businesses
CDC declares that COVID is nearing a pandemic level. https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/cdc-warns-that-covid19-is-likely-headed-toward-pandemic-stage-could-affect-us-schools-businesses
February 25
The day before, Nancy Pelosi (who received a CDC briefing a week earlier) travels around Chinatown without social distancing or a mask, and declares all is well. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1303750272381054977?s=20
The day before, Nancy Pelosi (who received a CDC briefing a week earlier) travels around Chinatown without social distancing or a mask, and declares all is well. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1303750272381054977?s=20
March 3
Governor Andrew Cuomo travels the subway without mask and social distancing, says it is safe.
Note he received a CDC briefing 2 weeks prior. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1303750275107295233?s=20
Governor Andrew Cuomo travels the subway without mask and social distancing, says it is safe.
Note he received a CDC briefing 2 weeks prior. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1303750275107295233?s=20
March 5
Mayor DeBlasio travels the subways without mask or social distancing, says it is safe. https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-bill-de-blasio-coronavirus-subway-20200305-vmjdxjudbndlrjekashqs3hfou-story.html
Mayor DeBlasio travels the subways without mask or social distancing, says it is safe. https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-bill-de-blasio-coronavirus-subway-20200305-vmjdxjudbndlrjekashqs3hfou-story.html
Mid-March
Things start moving very quickly. Ohio is among the first to close schools. New York, Michigan, etc follow quickly after.
Shutdowns begin. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1303750276218839046?s=20
Things start moving very quickly. Ohio is among the first to close schools. New York, Michigan, etc follow quickly after.
Shutdowns begin. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1303750276218839046?s=20
March 17
Administration starts talking about PPP, Emergency stimulus, etc.
Administration starts talking about PPP, Emergency stimulus, etc.
March 19
Newsom quickly acts, imposes a statewide stay-at-home order.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.19.20-attested-EO-N-33-20-COVID-19-HEALTH-ORDER.pdf
Newsom quickly acts, imposes a statewide stay-at-home order.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.19.20-attested-EO-N-33-20-COVID-19-HEALTH-ORDER.pdf
March 27
Trump signs the Congressionally approved CARES act. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822062909/house-aims-to-send-2-trillion-rescue-package-to-president-to-stem-coronavirus-cr
Trump signs the Congressionally approved CARES act. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822062909/house-aims-to-send-2-trillion-rescue-package-to-president-to-stem-coronavirus-cr
March 30
FDA authorizes HCQ. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-daily-roundup-march-30-2020
FDA authorizes HCQ. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-daily-roundup-march-30-2020
May 1
FDA authorizes Remdesivir for EUA. https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-covid19-treatment
FDA authorizes Remdesivir for EUA. https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/fda-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-covid19-treatment
May 21
US signs first vaccine deal with AstraZeneca (a vaccine which is now on hold).
US signs first vaccine deal with AstraZeneca (a vaccine which is now on hold).
May 28
Deaths pass 100,000 mark.
Deaths pass 100,000 mark.
June 10
US COVID cases passes 2 million.
US COVID cases passes 2 million.
June 18
WHO ends HCQ study. Most studies show no real benefit.
WHO ends HCQ study. Most studies show no real benefit.
June 22
A study suggest that 80% of cases in the first wave in NY, NJ, MI were undetected (important when you put into context into later waves). https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/what-were-reading-missing-covid19-cases-sanofi-ramps-up-vaccine-work-hand-sanitizer-warning
A study suggest that 80% of cases in the first wave in NY, NJ, MI were undetected (important when you put into context into later waves). https://www.ajmc.com/newsroom/what-were-reading-missing-covid19-cases-sanofi-ramps-up-vaccine-work-hand-sanitizer-warning
July 10
US setting new daily records for cases, nearing 70k. South getting hit hard. Deaths still not peaking.
US setting new daily records for cases, nearing 70k. South getting hit hard. Deaths still not peaking.
Peak daily deaths (approx)
NY 4/14
NJ 4/18
MI 4/14
LA 4/18
IL 5/13
AZ 7/30
TX 7/31
FL 8/4
CA 8/6
GA 8/11
NY 4/14
NJ 4/18
MI 4/14
LA 4/18
IL 5/13
AZ 7/30
TX 7/31
FL 8/4
CA 8/6
GA 8/11
Deaths/Million Population
I'm going to do a followup thread on where I think the Trump administration failed. Just dont' have time at the moment.
So, as for the Trump administration; I think they did a pretty horrid job, overall. Much of this is symbolic, some practical, but all was important to the overall national endeavor to stop the virus.
Some things made it harder for states; some states made it harder for Trump.
Some things made it harder for states; some states made it harder for Trump.
1. Public Health Response
While other countries were trying to ramp up testing, tracking and tracing regimens, we largely were ignoring testing. Part of that is because of the CDC, FDA etc screwing up (well documented), but part of it was lack of leadership from the White House.
While other countries were trying to ramp up testing, tracking and tracing regimens, we largely were ignoring testing. Part of that is because of the CDC, FDA etc screwing up (well documented), but part of it was lack of leadership from the White House.
- For example:
It took Iceland only one day to reach a daily testing rate of one test per 1,000 residents... Lithuania, Norway, and New Zealand seven, eight, and 14 days, respectively. Meanwhile, it took the United States 55 days to reach that same rate.
It took Iceland only one day to reach a daily testing rate of one test per 1,000 residents... Lithuania, Norway, and New Zealand seven, eight, and 14 days, respectively. Meanwhile, it took the United States 55 days to reach that same rate.
2. Stockpiling
Some of these were longterm issues (ventilators were a problem from the Obama era), but in the early weeks, from end of Jan onward, the admin should have started stockpiling PPE. Other countries rushed to do so, making it harder for the US to find supplies later.
Some of these were longterm issues (ventilators were a problem from the Obama era), but in the early weeks, from end of Jan onward, the admin should have started stockpiling PPE. Other countries rushed to do so, making it harder for the US to find supplies later.
3. Failure to push masks
Admin actually did a pretty decent job of promoting social distancing. Trump was repeating that mantra daily. But masks? Masks was a failure I don't fully understand. Part of that is the fault of Fauci, Birx, Redfield...but Trump does not escape blame.
Admin actually did a pretty decent job of promoting social distancing. Trump was repeating that mantra daily. But masks? Masks was a failure I don't fully understand. Part of that is the fault of Fauci, Birx, Redfield...but Trump does not escape blame.
4. Failure to pass larger stimulus.
This is at least 50% the fault of Democrats. Mnuchin, for one, wanted $2k a month for every person, regardless of income, until the pandemic was over. Dems didn't want to give the 'rich' money. And so we go the CARES act, which was half assed.
This is at least 50% the fault of Democrats. Mnuchin, for one, wanted $2k a month for every person, regardless of income, until the pandemic was over. Dems didn't want to give the 'rich' money. And so we go the CARES act, which was half assed.
5. More assistance to maintain jobs/retain workers
Like the above, this is 1/2 the fault of the Trump people. A larger amount of money, or federal guarantees, would have keep unemployment lower than in ballooned to.
Like the above, this is 1/2 the fault of the Trump people. A larger amount of money, or federal guarantees, would have keep unemployment lower than in ballooned to.
6. Failure to buoy state budgets.
This is 100% Republicans. States have had to make massive cuts across the board, and that has led to all kinds of negative issues. The Feds should have, very early on, promised at least partial backstop.
This is 100% Republicans. States have had to make massive cuts across the board, and that has led to all kinds of negative issues. The Feds should have, very early on, promised at least partial backstop.
7. Too much faith in WHO and China.
Trump's natural inclination is to believe everyone is lying. But he TRUSTED CHINA at critical moment when he shouldnt have. Borders should have closed sooner too.
As for WHO, that is more the fault of bureaucrats, who innately trust govt.
Trump's natural inclination is to believe everyone is lying. But he TRUSTED CHINA at critical moment when he shouldnt have. Borders should have closed sooner too.
As for WHO, that is more the fault of bureaucrats, who innately trust govt.
8. No common national message.
This, IMHO, is Trump's biggest failure. For a few weeks, when he had daily conferences, Trump actually...was not bad? He, Birx and Fauci had a pretty decent common message, were trying not to attack Dems, and promoted social distancing.
This, IMHO, is Trump's biggest failure. For a few weeks, when he had daily conferences, Trump actually...was not bad? He, Birx and Fauci had a pretty decent common message, were trying not to attack Dems, and promoted social distancing.
- Trump finally imposes DPA to increase PPE, Vents, etc on April 2nd. Probably should have gone earlier, but probably (without promotion of masks) wouldn't have mattered either.
Then, tables turned in mid-April, as people in states like MI and WI protested the harsh lockdowns.
Then, tables turned in mid-April, as people in states like MI and WI protested the harsh lockdowns.
- Trump declared on April 13 that he has 'absolute authority' to end Gov shutdown orders (obviously he doesn't). But once he said that, lot of people believed him, and started blaming him for the shutdowns. The political support for lockdowns collapsed by his base.
- Starting in May, Trump started denying the problem at all. He believed the summer months would make it all go away. It was always a mirage.
- A month later, the surge starts down south, and a true second American wave begins, ending all hope for a quick end.
- A month later, the surge starts down south, and a true second American wave begins, ending all hope for a quick end.
Now, couple caveats (including the ones above).
I think some of the mistakes (like slow response) would have happened under a Dem President too. If you remember, Obama was very slow to respond to H1N1.
I think some of the mistakes (like slow response) would have happened under a Dem President too. If you remember, Obama was very slow to respond to H1N1.
I think a Dem would have trusted Chinese, WHO and CDC even more than Trump.
I think Dems would have taken longer to close border (may were claiming Trump did it because he was racist; in fact, closing the border came too late, and could've been one of the biggest positives).
I think Dems would have taken longer to close border (may were claiming Trump did it because he was racist; in fact, closing the border came too late, and could've been one of the biggest positives).
On the other hand, Dems probably would have built of PPE faster, and if the CDC had made a mistake on testing, would have poured money and effort into that endeavor earlier.
I also think almost anyone would have had better universal messaging.
/Fin
I also think almost anyone would have had better universal messaging.
/Fin
New update from the Wall Street Journal. https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/status/1314905575596195841?s=20
