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I wrote a new piece about the 9 errors of intuition that people keep making during the pandemic, trapping us in a spiral of bad decisions & policies. This is a guide to thinking about the crisis & breaking free from that endless loop. 1/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
Beating COVID-19 isn't just about more tests/masks. Many of the problems that have tripped us up are conceptual. Magical thinking. False dichotomies. Conflating imperfect with useless. Blaming individuals over fixing systems. I've listed 9. 2/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
These errors of intuition cropped up in debates over masks, social-distancing, ventilation, colleges. They’ll appear again when we have a vaccine. Winter is coming. We must reset, and "adjust our thinking to match the problem before us.” 3/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
These errors aren’t unique to COVID-19. But as I explain in the final section, they’ve been exacerbated by features of this particular pandemic, and by the people who are meant to lead the US out of it--but have instead made things much worse. 4/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
The perfect metaphor for the US pandemic response: the army ant “death spiral.” Following looping pheromone trails, the ants walk in endless self-destructive circles, walled in by their own unhelpful instincts. We should/can do better. 5/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
This piece is a sequel of sorts to this earlier one from April (which is still pretty solid 5 months later) about why the pandemic is so confusing. 6/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/
Throughout the year, I’ve tried to write pieces that help us make sense of this generation-defining crisis, deal with the constant gaslighting, see the bigger picture, and find structure amid uncertainty and complexity. I hope this new one helps. Fin/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
PS. Some of you have kindly said that you're looking forward to a time when I can return to nature writing, and, well, the army ants bit comes from the book about animal senses that I still need to finish. I guess you got your wish?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/pandemic-intuition-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/pandemic-intuition-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/
