Thread by @edyong209, I wrote a new piece about the 9 errors of intuition that [...]

I wrote a new piece about the 9 errors of intuition that people keep making during the pandemic, trapping us in a spiral of bad decisions & policies. This is a guide to thinking about the crisis & breaking free from that endless loop. 1/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

Beating COVID-19 isn't just about more tests/masks. Many of the problems that have tripped us up are conceptual. Magical thinking. False dichotomies. Conflating imperfect with useless. Blaming individuals over fixing systems. I've listed 9. 2/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

These errors of intuition cropped up in debates over masks, social-distancing, ventilation, colleges. They’ll appear again when we have a vaccine. Winter is coming. We must reset, and "adjust our thinking to match the problem before us.” 3/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

These errors aren’t unique to COVID-19. But as I explain in the final section, they’ve been exacerbated by features of this particular pandemic, and by the people who are meant to lead the US out of it--but have instead made things much worse. 4/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

The perfect metaphor for the US pandemic response: the army ant “death spiral.” Following looping pheromone trails, the ants walk in endless self-destructive circles, walled in by their own unhelpful instincts. We should/can do better. 5/

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

This piece is a sequel of sorts to this earlier one from April (which is still pretty solid 5 months later) about why the pandemic is so confusing. 6/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/

A guide to making sense of a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend

Throughout the year, I’ve tried to write pieces that help us make sense of this generation-defining crisis, deal with the constant gaslighting, see the bigger picture, and find structure amid uncertainty and complexity. I hope this new one helps. Fin/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/1857/11/pandemic-intution-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

PS. Some of you have kindly said that you're looking forward to a time when I can return to nature writing, and, well, the army ants bit comes from the book about animal senses that I still need to finish. I guess you got your wish?

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/pandemic-intuition-nightmare-spiral-winter/616204/

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