Read on Twitter
A @GQRResearch Florida poll for the pro-Biden @UniteCountryPAC has Biden +5, which you may discount bc of the sponsorship but the memo https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200908_FL_UniteTheCountryPAC.pdf is detailed and candid. Excerpts ...
"Biden’s strength among white college voters (52 percent Biden – 46 percent Trump) will be important to maintain, as it is likely that Biden may not match Clinton’s performance among Hispanics due to Trump’s resurgence among Cuban voters."
"Trump is currently rated 56 percent favorable – 42 percent unfavorable among Cuban voters and leads Biden by 18 points. Non-Cuban Hispanic voters give Trump a 40 percent favorable - 55 percent unfavorable rating and give Joe Biden a 55 to 38 percent electorate margin."
"Biden’s path focuses on holding college educated whites, increasing his support among non-Cuban
Hispanics to Clinton levels and turning out African Americans (currently 85 percent Biden)"
Hispanics to Clinton levels and turning out African Americans (currently 85 percent Biden)"
In 2016, Trump won with Florida Cubans 54-41, and lost with non-Cuban Latinos 71-26 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/
So according to the GQR poll, compared to 2016:
Among Cubans, Trump is +5 and Biden +0
But among non-Cuban Latinos, Trump +12 and Biden -16.
Among Cubans, Trump is +5 and Biden +0
But among non-Cuban Latinos, Trump +12 and Biden -16.
Is this a fixable problem for Biden?
GQR has Trump's *job approval* with non-Cuban Latinos at 40%. So Trump winning 38% of the vote, at least, would be expected.
And the Marist FL poll has Trump's job approval among all Latinos *above water* at 47%...
GQR has Trump's *job approval* with non-Cuban Latinos at 40%. So Trump winning 38% of the vote, at least, would be expected.
And the Marist FL poll has Trump's job approval among all Latinos *above water* at 47%...
To the extent Biden needs to introduce himself to voters, maybe get pro-Bernie Latinos more comfortable with him, Biden can improve
But this data suggests-after all we've seen, for whatever reason-a good portion of FL Latinos just like Trump
In that case, not much Biden can do
But this data suggests-after all we've seen, for whatever reason-a good portion of FL Latinos just like Trump
In that case, not much Biden can do
*Note that I deleted and reworded a couple of unclear tweets in this thread
