Read on Twitter
There's a big debate ongoing about Xi Jinping's new "dual circulation" strategy for China's economy—boosting domestic reliance/"circulation" above international exchange/"circulation."
Many (understandably wearied) commenters have said it's old wine in new bottles. BUT... (1/x) https://twitter.com/JulianGewirtz/status/1302982746873176065
Many (understandably wearied) commenters have said it's old wine in new bottles. BUT... (1/x) https://twitter.com/JulianGewirtz/status/1302982746873176065
There are two parts to this:
A near-term effort to revive export-driven growth & bring foreign capital to China,
&—maybe more important in the long run—a major, security-driven effort, w/Xi now personally invested to an unprecedented degree, to make the domestic shift real.
A near-term effort to revive export-driven growth & bring foreign capital to China,
&—maybe more important in the long run—a major, security-driven effort, w/Xi now personally invested to an unprecedented degree, to make the domestic shift real.
For Xi, China's policy has long gone too far in sacrificing economic security (by increasing intl dependence, esp on US) for growth.
"Dual circulation" is a jargonified admission that he feels the CCP needs to do much more to make China's security & prosperity go hand in hand.
"Dual circulation" is a jargonified admission that he feels the CCP needs to do much more to make China's security & prosperity go hand in hand.
This strategy is an answer to how Xi plans to make U.S.-China decoupling more sustainable for China, alongside indigenous innovation & related moves.
Although bilateral trade volumes are still quite high, Xi appears to be assuming that decoupling is likely to speed ahead.
Although bilateral trade volumes are still quite high, Xi appears to be assuming that decoupling is likely to speed ahead.
It's far, far from autarky, of course, but Xi is crystal clear that he intends to shift the balance in China's international exposure.
& it's his effort at an affirmative story about the model that he wants China to pursue as it faces these geopolitical & global health crises.
& it's his effort at an affirmative story about the model that he wants China to pursue as it faces these geopolitical & global health crises.
Of course, now they need to decide if they're really prepared to make the necessary shifts to China's economic & social systems.
But we shouldn't dismiss this sloganeering out of hand, esp in the era of Xi, who has been so ruthless in refashioning the system around his goals.
But we shouldn't dismiss this sloganeering out of hand, esp in the era of Xi, who has been so ruthless in refashioning the system around his goals.
The Chinese leadership doesn't issue slogans like these because they think things will be easy. They issue them to force focus, mobilization, and prioritization across a massive country.
Watch this space—incl. the 14th Five-Year Plan, w/"dual circulation" a likely centerpiece.
Watch this space—incl. the 14th Five-Year Plan, w/"dual circulation" a likely centerpiece.
As a historical point, it's worth noting that "dual circulation" (双循环体系) is a shift from the emphasis on the "great international circulation" (国际大循环) that was the framework for export-led growth & China’s integration into the world economy from the 1980s onward.
