(Thread): Bolivia’s pro-US candidates are in an even worse position than I previously thought. Economic collapse + stubborn far-right extremism in Eastern regions = Massive electoral defeat. Even with fraud, they're too weak now for the chaos that'd cause.

MAS can win in the first round with just 40% because Añez & Camacho’s base in Beni & Santa Cruz, respectively, is large enough to destroy the tactical vote that neoliberal centrist Carlos Mesa won there in 2019. (right pic is 2019 result by department)

This means MAS is 3% away from a 1st round victory, in a poll done by phone, which means that rural & working-class voters (70-80% of whom are MAS) are even more underrepresented compared to the pre-pandemic polls carried out in person. Arce will get a much higher % on the day.

Polls always under-represent the MAS vote, since indigenous rural areas are dispersed and hard to reach for pollsters. Previous elections show MAS can get up to 7-10% more on election day, compared to what polls showed.

MAS is the largest political force, undisputably. Worst case scenario for them is a 2nd round & the right unite. Even then, MAS beats Añez. With Mesa, the polls show them losing by a small %, small enough to be the margin of error that the hidden rural & w/c votes will deliver.

Beyond polls, MAS has been proved right when warning that neoliberals destroy the economy & create poverty. By July, unemployment had more than doubled compared to pre-coup figures, by now it’ll be MUCH higher. Anyone associated with Añez (even in 2nd round) is tarred by this.

Even in the unlikely scenario that MAS lose in 2nd round, the divisions within the right during 1st round means that MAS has a guaranteed majority in congress (elected by first-round votes). Mathematically, If Añez hadn't insisted on standing, the MAS wouldn't have this majority

A MAS legislature + social movements can paralyze the country whenever a neoliberal measure is introduced. The power to do that was proven during the general strike in early August, where almost every single major road was blocked with barricades. Country = ungovernable.

Same is true if the regime rigs the vote. Social movements have shown that they can completely paralyze everything, in every region, within hours, if an instruction from unions is given. The only option then is for the regime to launch a civil war, with years of ungovernability.

The August general strike also proved that social movements are much stronger now than during the coup, because the movement in August was about more than just the MAS/Evo, but also against the neoliberal economic collapse.

The regime still has the power of the media, of the irrational sections of the middle class, as well as the military (some sections of it). Massive killing is the only way they can govern after committing electoral fraud. That’s still a likely scenario.