'expert judgement' with no analysis is a fancy way of saying they made it up.

No wonder they ignored my requests for the underlying assumptions and then fought against my FOI
The Tech Roadmap is essentially a series of these graphs. No numbers, no explanation of how they came up with it. That's a terrible basis for climate policy.
The size of the bubble is supposed to show the emissions reductions each technology could deliver. The Department basically made this up, and then didn't tell anyone. And then mislead the public consultation about it.
The cost of abatement figures they did some work on, but didn't present it, and on the key question of renewables with/without gas the underlying assumptions completely ignored best available energy evidence (eg AEMO ISP) that lowest cost is more renewables and less gas.
Maybe there is good work in there. Who knows. It is completely undermined by this sort of shenanigans.
You can follow @Tom_Swann.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: