a hopefully short thread on Sino-American conflict and World War 3, cos I really fucking need sleep
To make things clear, there are three main powers in the Indo-Pacific competing for influence. China, the USA, and India. India, at long last, has begun to align herself with the USA ever since Galwan, with Washington's anti-China rhetoric likely to only increase soon.
But let's focus on India first. India has been weakened by China's diplomatic offensive in South Asia. Pakistan is now a major non-NATO ally for the USA in all but in name only. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan have all begun a slow drift away from alliance to neutrality.
To add onto that mess, India's economy has essentially collapsed quite a bit ever since COVID-19. That is not to say India is utterly screwed however. India sits at the crux of the Indian Ocean, and was effectively born to be the regional hegemon of South Asia.
India's economy could also be boosted by USA, EU and other Western-aligned countries as they seek to transfer manufacturing bases from China to South and Southeast Asia to decouple, or in the EU's case, diversify their imports.
India's military, however, is her arguably most important asset. The Indian military could win a small low scale skirmish thanks to being better suited to high altitude combat as well as a wealth of combat experience. However, a full scale war with China now would be a disaster.
What India should do in the coming decade, is to revitalize ties with her neighbours to pull them away from debt trap diplomacy and China's orbit, as well as increasing support for Tibetan separatists to forment an insurgency to tie down the PLA and wrest the plateau away.
Worst case scenario: India gets tied down in a full scale war and is decisively defeated, forced to cede all of Kashmir to Pakistan and Ladakh to China, as well as settling border disputes in China's favour. South Asia now looks to China as India seems to be slowly imploding.
Best case scenario: The transfering of manufacturing from China to India allows her to begin a swift economic recovery, accompanied by more successes like the late Aug. border conflicts. India pulls South Asia back under her influence and joins an expanded IPTO.
By the time the 2030s arrive, China seems to be mired in stagnation and diplomatic unrest as their powerful neighbour rises to become a peer competitor.
Next, for the People's Republic of China. Despite the fact India is in many organisations dominated by China (the SCO and BRICS come to mind), China has not treated them like an ally and instead has moved forward with a path of belligerence towards what could've been an ally.
China is at a crossroads, and the 2020s will likely decide whether this is the Chinese Decade + the Asian Century, or the Chinese Century and Pax Sinica. With the economy slowing, but still growing at a respectable rate, the next decade could make or break the Middle Kingdom.
Personally I believe we'll see a mix between the two if the PRC, the USA, India all remain rational, but to be honest, is that REALLY likely in the current climate we live in? Right now I lean more towards a Chinese decade scenario, with the 2020s potentially being the apex.
Let's take a brief look at China's FP failures. The EU-China investment deal, high on the agenda, wasn't even mentioned in Wang Yi's infamously disastrous visit to Europe. The OBOR has also slowly been dropped to the sidelines, with mixed returns and signals.
China's influence is likely to be constrained to South and Southeast Asia, where they have already established solid footholds in Pakistan, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia (such as the fact they straight up OWN most of Laos' electricity grid now).
Economy wise, I feel like the concerns of a PRC bubble burst are far, far too overrated. I expect it to grow at around 4-6% on average for the next decade, a dramatic drawdown from the Deng and Jiang eras but still a healthy amount.
However, East Turkestan has proven to be a massive thorn in China's side on the international scene as coverage of the cultural oppression there grows. Countries, under enough pressure, may force their companies to relocate factories out of there on the account of human rights.
Tibet may potentially resurge to becoming a force rivalling the heights of the 1950s resistance as India increasingly plays up the role of Tibetans in the Sino-Indian border conflicts. The geography does not favour the PLA if they have to fight an insurgency in the mountains.
South Mongolia is another example of China poking the hornet's nest for no damn reason. If China pushes on with their policy of linguistic repression, they could see the Mongolian diaspora within Inner Mongolia turn to insurgencies to resist the PRC if shit really hits the fan.
Hong Kong is likely to continue simmering across the next decade, with major protests being suppressed, and underground resistance hidden online likely to play a larger role in the fight for liberation. Whether or not China fucks up AGAIN to blow the lid off remains to be seen.
As for India, the nature of the Sino-Indian skirmishes is yet to be determined. Are they just standard salami slicing techniques, or is China preparing for a knockout strike in 2020-2021? I believe we'll get a much better picture on whether this simmers or climaxes after winter.
ASEAN has also drawn a red line in the sand against China. While ASEAN frankly could not win a war against China, the PRC's policies of aggression could potentially solidify Vietnam's shift to being American leaning, and cause other members to become aligned with the Quad.
small random prediction here: Myanmar will suffer a civil war before 2030, as the Cold War ramps up with China's presence in the Northern Burmese Shan states, while the two superpower wrest for influence.
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