Jalen Reagor: Bulletproof Prospect?

Let's dive in.

Jalen Reagor has a rare build

He stands 5-11 and weighs in at 206 pounds.

I have recently discovered @rotounderworld's athleticism score. Its like Sparq but makes more sense intuitively. It adjusts for position specific metrics and size, etc.

From a size/athleticism/draft capital perspective there is a lot to like about Jalen Reagor's comp list.

He is closest comparable to #BPP favorite DJ Moore.

Have the players on his comp list hit?

Santana Moss -
DJ Moore -
Golden Tate -
Christian Kirk - 2020
Jarvis Landry -

Hit me up if you want to know more about why Christian Kirk is a virtual lock to hit in 2020.

There was this crazy good article on @DLFootball by @FF_TomB in regards to WR BMI.

This speaks to how high end fantasy production are intertwined. The threshold laid out was 26.0. https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020/01/29/bmi-matters-for-wide-receiver-prospects/

Reagor slides in at 28.7

One thing that often gets overlooked is the early declare phenomenon.

PS. Jalen Reagor was an early declare.

Here is a write up on it from one of the best
@AmItheRealBlair

https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/01/one-weird-trick-for-finding-top-wr-prospects-early-declaration-and-draft-age-the-wrong-read-no-53/

Breakout age is often cited as one of the most predictive metrics and for good reason

The fact that he was a first round pick (21st overall) and has an age 18.7 (95th-percentile) breakout age alone gives him a 66.7% chance of hitting

Thanks to @pahowdy for the slick chart below

And then we get to college production. If you are wondering if it matters, it does.

This thread goes through the top 25 WR's at the time per DLF adp if you want to see how other top WR's have performed in college in market share of receiving yards https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1227547156485033984?s=20

Jalen Reagor looks a lot like those other guys. He was basically at or above the line 100% of his seasons.

He is stacking excellence. I like players that are never not good.

Graphing tool courtesy of @pahowdy @DLFootball and @theDudeZee !

One of the new metrics that I am looking at that is admittedly very similar to market share of receiving yards is yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA).

The main difference is that it incorporates an element of efficiency into it.

TBH I didnt think it was necessary at first, but when I incorporated it, it improved the overall correlation and hit rate.

And who am I to argue with results?

So we voyage on.

This is the first time that I have any pause about Jalen Reagor's profile at all.

My use of Y/TPA is still in its infancy so these thresholds may change as I keep modifying things, but Reagor comes in above the threshold only once in three years.

This suggests he was more of a compiler in college and just happened to be the guy on the team dominating the yardage but doing it VERY inefficiently.

However, in his age 20 season to say the QB play was poor would be an understatement.

Per @PFF_College Reagor's catchable target rate was 118th out of 120 receivers.

Forgive me if I cut the kid some slack in his final year. https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1248724939693228039?s=20

The next thing to look at are his teammates and this is one of things where I am not going to penalize him for not having better teammates

Though it would have been nice if we could have seen him take targets from other NFL players, but at TCU it wasnt meant to be

As an 18 year old freshman he stepped onto the field and immediately let the team in receiving.

At 19 he was unstoppable.

And then again at age 20 he was the OFFENSE.

Reagor led his team in receiving every single year he was in college which is exactly what we would expect a future star NFL receiver to do given his teammates.

Once you package all this up you find a player that you NEED to have on your roster.

Jalen Reagor is #bpp certified.

Grade: Bulletproof.

These grades are completely devoid of landing spots.

Once I factor in landing spot and projected long term volume it shot Jalen Reagor to the top of the class for me.

He is my fantasy WR1 in the 2020 class.

These player grades weigh heavily into my rankings on patreon until players establish themselves in the NFL.

If you are interested in this type of analysis please join me on patreon, the first tier is only three bucks! https://www.patreon.com/DFBeanCounter