so, quick thoughts on the grim Aussie journalist news. This heavily suggests that Cheng Lei was seized not through anything connected to her CGTN work or her own actions, but purely as part of hostage diplomacy. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/bill-birtles-mike-smith-evacuated-china-safety-concerns/12638786

I can't imagine *three* separate Australian journalists accidentally stumbling into the same single case, especially at such disparate outlets. But this means two possibilities in turn.

Either China has upped the ante to taking hostages *without any clear exchange objective* (e.g. the release of Meng in the Michaels case) on the other side - just seizing people as part of general degeneration of relationships or threat. That's very, very grim news.

Alternatively, the Australians have made some high-level arrest of a Chinese spy or business figure that the public is not aware of - or haven't realized how important they are - and China is trying to generate leverage to get them back.

Another possibility: the system is attempting to build an espionage case against Cheng Lei, perhaps out of pure paranoia/careerism (e.g. some official learnt of her having lunch with an embassy official and decided to pursue a vendetta or wanted to make a name)

as anyone familiar with totalitarianism knows, one politicized arrest generates *others.* If Lei knew Bill and Michael socially, that's enough for the MSS - given the current climate - to create an imaginary spy ring.

The confusing part here is that Lei was in Beijing and I think the others in Shanghai? Which doesn't rule this possibility out altogether, since people travel etc, but makes it less likely.