Josh Jacobs is one of “my guys” but he finished his great rookie year as RB21 in PPR formats. With a 2020 @TheUndroppables consensus ranking of RB8, some are questioning if he can get the target volume to hit 385 touches needed for PPR RB1 status. I dive into that in this thread

2) First, a word about 385 touches. Per @BpoFSU research, the average RB12 since 1992 scored at least 221.2 fantasy points, and no RB has ever received less than 385 touches and not scored at least 221.2 pts. Making 385 touches the threshold to hitting RB1 category. Can JJ do it?

3) We’ve seen what Jacobs can do on the ground. Rushing his way to 1,150 yards last year, the most rushing yards by a #Raiders rookie ever. And earning @PFF most elusive rusher title with 69 missed tackles forced. An amazing accomplishment for a rookie https://twitter.com/nfl/status/1263597940653748224

4) Jacobs accomplished all that off of just 242 rushes and 20 receptions (262 total), falling 123 touches short of 385. If he played all 16 games we could assume 37 more rushes at the same pace (299 total touches) still 86 short of 385. So where will those touches come from?

5) We can’t expect JJ to get an extra 86 recs. to hit 385 touches, it’s not probable with the competition for targets, and that’s not his or the offense’s style. He was already #4 in rush att./game with 18.6. We can only hope for a small bump in rushes and a lot more receptions.

6) While Jacobs’ rush att/game is already top 5, his total rushes last year was 14th w/ 242. So increasing to last year’s pace and hitting ~300 rushes puts him at top 3 last year in rushing attempts (Zeke had 301). Which is a tall order. So...more receptions!

7) But increasing receptions from 20 to upwards of 85, which puts him in Kamara territory, is a tall order in itself. But something needs to be done to increase his targets per game of 2.2 from last year. The raiders need more designed pass plays for him

8) I bring up the designed plays because Carr (in)famously missed Jacobs on a wide open check & release route when the main reads were covered and blocking broke down. This is one area where targets can drastically increase. Use JJ as the safety valve!

10) As I did the research one thing I couldn’t figure out is why he’s not more involved in the passing game. Besides his catching ability he can also block as seen below, stonewalling the linebacker on a check and release, getting upfield quick and juking the drop end for a 1st

12) Here’s the same swing route to the other direction. Eyes on the QB, secures the catch, immediate upfield burst, this time leaving the NB grabbing his jock strap with a subtle jab step inside and using his speed to separate from Melvin Ingram

13) He can run, catch, and block. So why isn’t he a lock for a RB1? 385 touches. It’s a numbers game to get to ppr RB1 status of 221 points with at least 385 touches. Assuming 300 rushes, & if he hits the avg. recs. for top 12 RBs last year of 73, he’ll still be short by 12

14) So does Josh Jacobs actually have a path to RB1 status or have we been hyping him up all offseason because of his potential, skill set, and opportunity? He can either break the model for the 385 touches=RB1 threshold with more TDs than 14 last year, or morph into Kamara

15) This thread took me down a path I didn’t expect as I had Jacobs as a ‘20 lock for a top 12 ppr RB. But he has a tough road ahead to hit RB1 status, needing a significant increase in targets and TDs. BUT if he can pace what he did in Raiders wins last year he’ll hit that level https://twitter.com/adamnessel/status/1301886966024278017

16) It’s safe to assume Jacobs will be a high end RB2 with RB1 upside this year. Plan accordingly for drafts, and plug him in #DFS lineups when the Raiders will win.

Thanks to @BpoFSU for research & @Jman_FF for gifs. Catch our work & player rankings at http://theUndroppables.com