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The first hour of VG is the hour before the multiplers come in, so it is the most interesting data-wise. “Hour 1” is 9 am in Europe and 5 pm in Japan, but “very late” in North America. This means that the numbers will have more of the Asia/Europe fanbase than the NA fanbase.
Round 1 (based on Hour 1 of the VG):
Edelgard: 32.3%
Dimitri: 22.4%
Lysithea: 17.0%
Claude: 15.2%
Tiki: 5.2%
Celica: 4.2%
Berkut: 3.5%
Takumi: 2.1%
Edelgard: 32.3%
Dimitri: 22.4%
Lysithea: 17.0%
Claude: 15.2%
Tiki: 5.2%
Celica: 4.2%
Berkut: 3.5%
Takumi: 2.1%
Notes: “Feather merchants” will not slant the results of Round 1 because none of the 3H characters will have feather merchants on their teams. Lysithea having more votes than Claude is probably the single most surprising development from this. Edie is very strong too.
Round 2 (based on the first hour):
Edelgard: 44.5%
Dimitri: 22.8%
Claude: 18.7%
Tiki: 10.9%
Edelgard: 44.5%
Dimitri: 22.8%
Claude: 18.7%
Tiki: 10.9%
Notes: Lysithea’s fanbase (which is over 50% of the losing fanbase) went disproportionately to -Edelgard-, not to Claude. So there seems to be less of a ‘Golden Deer’ overlap and more of an overlap between Edie fans and Lysithea fans.
Again, most feather merchants are just jumping on Team Tiki, so the relative ranking of the 3H characters will not be affected much. Dimitri’s numbers were changed very little.
Round 3 (based on the first hour):
Edelgard: 61.1%
Dimitri: 38.9%
Round 3 is the messiest because feather merchants are going to go to Dimitri, and otherwise I suspect Claude fans largely split between the two factions, looking at the numbers.
Edelgard: 61.1%
Dimitri: 38.9%
Round 3 is the messiest because feather merchants are going to go to Dimitri, and otherwise I suspect Claude fans largely split between the two factions, looking at the numbers.
I think it’s interesting because the gap between Edelgard and Dimitri in these numbers seems to be -higher- than CYL, despite the accusations of cheating in CYL for Edelgard. (There is no real impetus to cheat in VG…).
This makes me think that the people who voted for Bernie/Dorothea in CYL likely disproportionately supported Edelgard in this VG, since the Black Eagles performed quite a bit better than the Lions in CYL.
I just wanted to note that this is more about my general enjoyment of numbers and math than to pursue any particular agenda. 
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