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I’m going to do a little breakdown of last night’s 4th quarter here in this thread. Lakers were down 2 to start this quarter.
Vogel’s quick interview to start the quarter was prescient:
Vogel’s quick interview to start the quarter was prescient:
He went on to say that their strategy in the quarter would be to “mix up their pitches” and “show them different looks”
First play. Lebron finds Russ. RoCo weirdly stands in no mans land, ineffectively helping Russ. Rondo makes a really smart play, screening Daniel House. House can’t help on the drive because he’s leaning on Rondo. Lebron easily splits the weak double and dunks on Jeff Green.
First Rockets possession. Westbrook ditches Rondo to isolate Caruso, who knows why, but Rondo gets caught in no-mans-land over helping a good matchup for the Lakers leaving Gordon who had torched the Lakers.
Lakers fortunate to get a miss here.
Quality shots: LA-1 HOU-1
Lakers fortunate to get a miss here.
Quality shots: LA-1 HOU-1
Bron waits for the play to develop and sees that they’re completely ignoring Rondo. Rondo smartly sets a screen to set up a driving lane. Lebron goes to his usually unstoppable spin move. Green falls to make the ref make a call. Charge.
Gonna count this as a quality shot. 2-1 LA
Gonna count this as a quality shot. 2-1 LA
Early theme here is that the Rockets have ignored Rondo on back to back possessions, but that Rondo has generated openings in the offense by setting screens.
Caruso pressures Russ, Russ beats the pressure. Down side of full court pressure is that if you get beat you’re giving a guy a full head of steam. Rondo and Kieff were slow to help, LeBron takes the play off, easy layup.
4 possessions in, quality offense from both teams. 2-2.
4 possessions in, quality offense from both teams. 2-2.
Rockets ditch Rondo again, Lebron kicks to him. Rondo is patient, instead of taking the early three. Kieff kinda just aimlessly migrates to the top of the key and Russ is in la la land.
Rondo hits Kieff, Kieff makes a quick decision, easy layup. Bad Russ.
3-2 Lakers.
Rondo hits Kieff, Kieff makes a quick decision, easy layup. Bad Russ.
3-2 Lakers.
Kuz and Rondo are confused in their matchup, but they communicate and rotate well to recover. Russ then isolates Caruso again and settles for a terrible 3 with 7 seconds on the shot clock. Bricks it. First bad offensive possession of the quarter.
3-2 Lakers.
3-2 Lakers.
Lakers want to attack Russ again, get him onto Rondo. Russ dares him to shoot and he knocks it down.
If you’re counting along, that’s Russ getting attacked in 3 of the 4 Laker possessions.
We’re now at 4 quality offensive possessions for LA, and 2 for Houston.
If you’re counting along, that’s Russ getting attacked in 3 of the 4 Laker possessions.
We’re now at 4 quality offensive possessions for LA, and 2 for Houston.
Houston goes to Gordon on this play. Tries to drive left. Kuzma does a good job of just being big, in his way, and not fouling.
Turnover, transition attack (which has been the Lakers’ bread and butter all season), monster LeBron jam.
5-2 Lakers (counting quality possessions).
Turnover, transition attack (which has been the Lakers’ bread and butter all season), monster LeBron jam.
5-2 Lakers (counting quality possessions).
Again, early theme here is execution.
Rondo and LeBron have generated quality offense on every single possession, and scored on all but one of them, the one being a 50/50 call that could have been FTs.
Rockets getting inconsistent decision making on the other end.
Rondo and LeBron have generated quality offense on every single possession, and scored on all but one of them, the one being a 50/50 call that could have been FTs.
Rockets getting inconsistent decision making on the other end.
Harden checks back in. Lakers go to their 1-2-2 zone. Harden gives the ball up and stands in the corner. Kinda meanders disengaged to the wing. Russ attacks a bad matchup, telegraphs the layup, Lebron blocks him into oblivion. Another bad Rockets possession.
This is where Harden kills his team. You’re team is struggling to execute and the game is starting to shift. The coach puts you back in, and in the first possession you completely disengage and the same problem that was happening before you checked in happens again.
This is also part of the genius of Vogel’s defense. Makes the shift to the zone right when Harden checks in because he knows it will throw them off. “Mixing up his pitches”
Short clock from the previous sequence. Harden doesn’t really fight for positioning, content to arm fight with Rondo. House has to bail them out. Drives into help, misses.
Still 5-2 Lakers.
Rondo deserves credit for taking Harden out of this sequence with basic gamesmanship.
Still 5-2 Lakers.
Rondo deserves credit for taking Harden out of this sequence with basic gamesmanship.
Watch lebron peak back at House on the ground. Identifies the advantage and pushes aggressively to the rim. Harden has to cut him off, leaves Caruso. Layup.
Lakers have run quality offense in all 6 of their possessions, scored on 5.
Houston stuck on just two quality possessions
Lakers have run quality offense in all 6 of their possessions, scored on 5.
Houston stuck on just two quality possessions
Harden finally gets involved. Does what you’re supposed to do against a zone as a ball handler: draw two defenders. He meanders right until Caruso and Kuz both guard him. As soon as Kuz leaves he attacks. Rondo is lost. RoCo cuts. Easy layup.
6-3 Lakers. Harden is a genius.
6-3 Lakers. Harden is a genius.
Kieff makes another huge play. Identifies that the Rockets have poor floor balance leading to a transition opportunity for the Lakers, skips the ball ahead, Lakers get the two right back.
PJ Tucker needs to identify the RoCo layup earlier and get back.
7-3 Lakers.
PJ Tucker needs to identify the RoCo layup earlier and get back.
7-3 Lakers.
Another ugly Russ sequence. Lakers ignore him leading to poor spacing. Harden makes a beautiful skip pass to House, misses. Russ gets a great rebound but then inexplicably drives into three Lakers with no space, turns it over. Baffling decision.
7-4 Lakers (quality House shot)
7-4 Lakers (quality House shot)
Lebron and Rondo check out, AD checks in.
Predictably, first ugly Laker possession. Caruso runs PNR with AD and kicks it to the corner, turns it over.
Still 7-4 Lakers, counting quality offensive possession.
Predictably, first ugly Laker possession. Caruso runs PNR with AD and kicks it to the corner, turns it over.
Still 7-4 Lakers, counting quality offensive possession.
Harden brings it up. Faces an early double and a late double. Lakers are flying around in their rotations. Nothing is open. Russ, of course has no issue jacking up and missing the three.
Foreshadowing here, I thought the late double on Harden was genius. Less time to capitalize.
Foreshadowing here, I thought the late double on Harden was genius. Less time to capitalize.
Also, going to get on Harden again, he starts backing away from the play with eight seconds on the shot clock. By the end of the possession he standing at half court. He’s doing his team no favors by taking his talent entirely out of the play.
Another Caruso/AD PNR gets nothing, but they revert to the AD isolation mismatch at the foul line.
Long contested twos are not *great* shots. But when you have 6 inches on the guy, and you’re inside 15 feet, it is a really good shot.
Bucket.
8-4 Lakers.
Long contested twos are not *great* shots. But when you have 6 inches on the guy, and you’re inside 15 feet, it is a really good shot.
Bucket.
8-4 Lakers.
This time Harden aggressively attacks the double, creates chaos in the Laker defense. Laker rotations make the Rockets make some extra passes, but ends in a good look. Just misses.
Caruso misses the baseline box out. Tucker makes up for his transition mistake earlier.
8-5 LA
Caruso misses the baseline box out. Tucker makes up for his transition mistake earlier.
8-5 LA
This is a great example of how elite rotating defenses gain unseen advantages. House gets a good look, but the crazy Laker rotations get the ball out of Covington’s hands, and RoCo was on fire all night. Might have saved them 3 points.
Also, Lakers missed A LOT of box outs.
Also, Lakers missed A LOT of box outs.
Caruso makes another poor decision, attacking early with no advantage (may be time to take him off the ball), nearly turns it over.
Davis heat check, not as much separation, misses. Bad possession.
Still 8-5 Lakers.
If you’re going to play Rondo, these are the minutes to do it
Davis heat check, not as much separation, misses. Bad possession.
Still 8-5 Lakers.
If you’re going to play Rondo, these are the minutes to do it
Rockets have much better spacing to counter the double on this possession. Couple that with a weak Laker rotation effort and you get a wide open three for the guy who has been on fire all night. Great possession.
8-6 Lakers.
Things have gone south since LeBron/Rondo sat.
8-6 Lakers.
Things have gone south since LeBron/Rondo sat.
Still no Lebron, but Rondo is back in after the Laker timeout.
Danny Green relocates while AD is fighting for position. Eric Gordon lazily follows. Rondo catches him sleeping. Patented DG pump and shoot. Bucket.
9-6 Lakers. Great IQ from Rondo again.
Danny Green relocates while AD is fighting for position. Eric Gordon lazily follows. Rondo catches him sleeping. Patented DG pump and shoot. Bucket.
9-6 Lakers. Great IQ from Rondo again.
Harden patiently navigates a double team.
What murders this play is PJ Tucker, who aimlessly wanders to the key where nobody needs to guard him, allowing Danny Green to easily recover to Gordon.
Bad possession.
What murders this play is PJ Tucker, who aimlessly wanders to the key where nobody needs to guard him, allowing Danny Green to easily recover to Gordon.
Bad possession.
Lebron checks back in.
Another short clock situation where Harden just doesn’t want the ball. Stars are supposed to bail you out in times like this.
Lebron swallows up Daniel House. Pushes in transition. Rockets get back. Lakers pull it out to reset.
Another short clock situation where Harden just doesn’t want the ball. Stars are supposed to bail you out in times like this.
Lebron swallows up Daniel House. Pushes in transition. Rockets get back. Lakers pull it out to reset.
Ah yes, the DG 1-foot air ball.
AD makes a nice read off the double. DG cuts and blows the layup.
AD clearly predicts such an outcome as he comes flying in and puts it back.
Another great read and quality shot, DG not withstanding.
We’re now at 10-6 Lakers. Lakers up 8.
AD makes a nice read off the double. DG cuts and blows the layup.
AD clearly predicts such an outcome as he comes flying in and puts it back.
Another great read and quality shot, DG not withstanding.
We’re now at 10-6 Lakers. Lakers up 8.
Phenomenal defense from Davis on this possession.
Shuts down Harden’s stepback. Harden haplessly tosses it to Gordon who throws up a long contested three. Misses.
Another bad possession for the Rockets.
Shuts down Harden’s stepback. Harden haplessly tosses it to Gordon who throws up a long contested three. Misses.
Another bad possession for the Rockets.
Bad shot selection AD on this one. Has the mismatch but doesn’t fight to get any closer to the rim. Settles for a much tougher-than-usual fadeaway. Misses.
Needs to just try to get a bit closer, and bump PJ to generate some space.
Still 10-6 Lakers.
Needs to just try to get a bit closer, and bump PJ to generate some space.
Still 10-6 Lakers.
LeBron appears to say as much to AD, who acknowledges it.
Moving on.
Moving on.
Eric Gordon attacks Rondo’s close out, generates a wide open look for Tucker. Just misses.
Great possession. 10-7 Lakers.
Great possession. 10-7 Lakers.
Lebron AD pick and pop.
Tucker recovers to AD, Bron puts his head down and goes to the rim.
RoCo actually defends this pretty well until the end. Should have just thrown his hands up and made lebron make a shot. Instead rips down and fouls.
Bron goes 2 for 2.
11-7 Lakers.
Tucker recovers to AD, Bron puts his head down and goes to the rim.
RoCo actually defends this pretty well until the end. Should have just thrown his hands up and made lebron make a shot. Instead rips down and fouls.
Bron goes 2 for 2.
11-7 Lakers.
How does Harden respond to the first double digit Laker lead?
Dribbles down and takes a bad step back three over Caruso who is all over him. Bricks it.
Bad possession.
11-7 Lakers, Lakers up 10.
Dribbles down and takes a bad step back three over Caruso who is all over him. Bricks it.
Bad possession.
11-7 Lakers, Lakers up 10.
How does LeBron respond to Harden’s terrible shot?
He generates a wide open three for a guy who was 4 for 4 from three in the game.
Kieff misses. Huge DG OREB, huge AC save, in ensuing chaos AD attacks a close out and gets a layup.
Two more great Laker possessions.
13-7.
He generates a wide open three for a guy who was 4 for 4 from three in the game.
Kieff misses. Huge DG OREB, huge AC save, in ensuing chaos AD attacks a close out and gets a layup.
Two more great Laker possessions.
13-7.
Harden pushes off DG, no call, Harden finds himself wide open, nails the three.
Can’t call a wide open three a bad possession.
13-8 Lakers. Lakers up 9.
Can’t call a wide open three a bad possession.
13-8 Lakers. Lakers up 9.
Another theme here is that there is a difference between a quality Harden 3PA and a bad one.
He almost always makes the good ones, and he almost always misses the bad ones.
I’m not sure how you factor that in with your spreadsheets, but be my guest.
He almost always makes the good ones, and he almost always misses the bad ones.
I’m not sure how you factor that in with your spreadsheets, but be my guest.
LeBron posts up Westbrook.
Westbrook smartly shades his right shoulder when he sees Harden waiting on the baseline. Great defense. Probably should have kicked out to Kieff, instead forces a pass to AC. Turnover. Bad possession.
13-8 Lakers.
Westbrook smartly shades his right shoulder when he sees Harden waiting on the baseline. Great defense. Probably should have kicked out to Kieff, instead forces a pass to AC. Turnover. Bad possession.
13-8 Lakers.
Harden seeks out a switch to get AD on him, god knows why, aimlessly wastes the shot clock before Rondo late-doubles. Russ bricks another three.
This is the late double I’m talking about. Makes it so that Russ doesn’t even think about driving off the catch.
Bad possession.
This is the late double I’m talking about. Makes it so that Russ doesn’t even think about driving off the catch.
Bad possession.
Listen in the background to JVG talking about Russ not attacking. Alludes to it being about confidence. I think it was the late double that threw him off.
Lebron goes for the kill. Open look. Misses. Not a bad possession but not a good one.
Still 13-8 Lakers.
Lebron goes for the kill. Open look. Misses. Not a bad possession but not a good one.
Still 13-8 Lakers.
Bad Laker floor balance (AD/Bron were at the top of the key, but crashed instead of getting back) leads to a transition opportunity. Great find by Westbrook.
RoCo gets fouled, goes 2 for 2.
13-9 Lakers.
RoCo gets fouled, goes 2 for 2.
13-9 Lakers.
Rockets switch from not guarding Rondo to flat out blitzing the ball handler with Rondo’s man. First time AD gets rid of it, second time he turns it over.
This is bad. This could be an effective Rockets strategy.
AC gets ball back, hoists prayer, misses.
Westbrook flops.
This is bad. This could be an effective Rockets strategy.
AC gets ball back, hoists prayer, misses.
Westbrook flops.
Houston reverts to a soft double, likely because this time it’s LeBron and he’s a way better passer.
Some chaos leads to Rondo with the ball. Russ dares him to shoot again. Rondo makes him pay. Love how he got closer instead of taking the 3.
14-9 Lakers
Some chaos leads to Rondo with the ball. Russ dares him to shoot again. Rondo makes him pay. Love how he got closer instead of taking the 3.
14-9 Lakers
I get the idea of daring a player because it plays head games.
But Rondo was having a good night. I don’t like this defense from Russ. It’s one thing to dare him off the ball. But if he has it, you might as well make yourself useful and contest.
But Rondo was having a good night. I don’t like this defense from Russ. It’s one thing to dare him off the ball. But if he has it, you might as well make yourself useful and contest.
Harden attacks the double again. Both times he’s done this good things have happened.
Easy layup. Great possession.
14-10 Lakers. 6 point game. One minute left.
Easy layup. Great possession.
14-10 Lakers. 6 point game. One minute left.
Bunch of haphazard doubling from Houston on this sequence.
AD finds lebron cutting to the lane. Vintage Lebron 2018 turnaround. Great separation, great lift, great release, bucket.
Again, key being LeBron worked to get closer.
15-10 Lakers. Game over.
AD finds lebron cutting to the lane. Vintage Lebron 2018 turnaround. Great separation, great lift, great release, bucket.
Again, key being LeBron worked to get closer.
15-10 Lakers. Game over.
Harden dribbles it off his foot. Both teams run the clock out.
So, in summation, Lakers started the quarter down 2, won by 8.
Lakers had 15 quality offensive possessions, Houston had 10.
So, in summation, Lakers started the quarter down 2, won by 8.
Lakers had 15 quality offensive possessions, Houston had 10.
