1. EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES. The fantasy “Australia-style” trade relationship with the EU is in vogue again.

Time for another look at what it means, and why the UK won’t have one.

No deal failure can't be dressed up as success.

Here's Johnson: https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1302723447898992641?s=20

2. ECONOMIC COST. Here’s LSE’s @thom_sampson:

“The government’s own analysis forecasts that a no-deal Brexit would reduce UK GDP by 7.6% after 15 years, while reaching a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU would lead to a 4.9% decline”

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/08/26/a-no-deal-brexit-may-still-be-more-costly-than-covid-19/

3. ECONOMIC COST. See also this thread https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1274956533525295119?s=20

4. TRADE. Here’s @DavidHenigUK https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1302858138669010944?s=20

5. TRADE. This is what Australia trades with the EU. It’s nothing like the UK’s trade with the EU.

https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/australias-goods-trade-with-the-eu.pdf

6. TRADE. This is what the UK trades with the EU. It’s nothing like Australia’s trade with the EU

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf

7. EU-Australia MUTUAL RECOGNITION AGREEMENT (MRA)—making it easier for companies to get their products certified as conforming with the standards of the importing country, reducing an important non-tariff barrier.

No deal = No UK-EU MRA

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/goods/international-aspects/mutual-recognition-agreements_en

8. TARIFF QUOTAS (TRQs). Australia has zero/low duty access to EU for eg: beef, lamb, cheese for processing, Cheddar. UK must fight for a share of small quotas for non-specified suppliers. Otherwise prohibitive tariffs

No deal = No UK TRQs in the EU

https://tradebetablog.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/4-eu-trq-modification-24july18.pdf

9. WINE. Australia-EU have a deal on geographical indications for wine https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22009A0130(01)&rid=1

Will the UK have one? Only what’s in the Withdrawal Agreement—the UK continues to protect EU-registered names.

No deal = it’s complicated https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2020/08/29/will-the-melton-mowbray-continue-to-be-protected-in-the-eu-with-no-deal/

10. OTHER ISSUES. The UK-EU talks are not just about trade but the whole future relationship. Here’s a list of EU-Australia agreements

No deal = Any of these?

https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/australia_en/610/Australia%20and%20the%20EU

11. THE AUSTRALIAN VIEW. Here’s the Australian view of its relationship with the EU. There’s a partnership framework. (The UK has a Withdrawal Agreement.)

General: https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/europe/european-union/Pages/european-union-brief

12. THE AUSTRALIAN VIEW. And here’s why even Australia is dissatisfied with its present relationship with the EU.

“Australia is seeking an ambitious and comprehensive FTA with the EU to drive Australian exports, economic growth and job creation.”

https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/aeufta/Pages/default

13. EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES. Trying to dress “no deal” up as any kind of deal is like the emperor’s new clothes.

It’s a fig-leaf that doesn’t work.

END

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2020/05/27/wto-terms-part-1-meaning/#terms

Twitter mucked up the graphics in Tweet 6. Here they are, hopefully clearer. UK trade in goods with the EU:

Data from https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf

@UKandEU has now published this on the "Australia style" deal.

I have a tease question

1/2

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/what-is-an-australian-style-deal/

Australia-EU mutual recognition agreement includes “Automotive products”

Oz doesn't export cars to EU. They top its goods imports from EU (12.5%)

But cars=10% of UK exports to EU, & 48% of EU exports to UK

So isn't no deal much worse than Oz-style deal for auto-industry?

2/2

Plus of course, supply chain trade in auto components