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The unintended risks and consequences of increasing technological complexity in military operations could benefit from greater attention and theorizing. As modern militaries pursue ever more technical solutions to their operational problems, some things to keep in mind ... (1/8)
In 1984, Charles Perrow popularized the concepts of "interactive complexity" and "loose/tight coupling" which jointly affected a system's susceptibility to accidents. Then came research on High Reliability Organizations that could control these problems. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691004129/normal-accidents
Chris Demchak applied these intuitions to military technology and found that complex machines increase organizational complexity. Under certain conditions, attempts to exert control paradoxically increases uncertainty and frequency of unexpected outcomes. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801424687/military-organizations-complex-machines/#bookTabs=1
Scott Sagan pointed out "high reliability" and "normal accidents" theories both accepted that interactive complexity and tight coupling lead to accidents, but held different views about the effectiveness of org. design and management at mitigating risk. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691021010/the-limits-of-safety
More recently, @jonrlindsay has criticized the "technology theory of victory" by focusing on the complexity of information practices. He introduces the key issue of fitness between the external strategic problems and internal organizational solutions. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501749568/information-technology-and-military-power/
The risks of interactive complexity and tight coupling are front and center in discussions about the implications of artificial intelligence for military performance. @BenjamJensen et al describe how AI can complicate as much as simplify decision-making. https://academic.oup.com/isr/isr/article-abstract/22/3/526/5522301#.X1Y1qHP2en8.twitter
AI also presents challenges for civil-military relations, as @RisaBrooks12 notes: command authority, civilian oversight of military activity, and military advisory processes. https://warontherocks.com/2018/11/technology-and-future-war-will-test-u-s-civil-military-relations/
The relationship between technical complexity and operational performance is a rich vein of research that deserves greater attention, especially given what @munchf15 calls the problem of "technological exuberance." https://media.defense.gov/2017/Nov/21/2001847246/-1/-1/0/DP_0012_FINO_ALL_MISSILES_WORK.PDF
Works that I've pointed out above are just scratching the surface. Please share other insightful research on these issues.
