1/ Okay, strap in for a thread on the UK, no-deal, and the decisions that got us here.

Let's remember for a moment that Johnson and his govt are angling at no-deal voluntarily. They are *choosing* to do this. There are other routes they could take. They are choosing this one.

2/ They are choosing to go for no deal because it's easier than doing the hard work of negotiating complex new relationships to replace the ones they have torn up in such cavalier fashion, ones that we all - directly or indirectly - depend on.

3/ Relationships they don't understand & care about even less. That's a bad place to start from when you decide to remake from scratch, like attempting a heart transplant when you not only have no medical knowledge but reject even the concept of medical science.
There'll be blood

4/ They are choosing to go for no deal because they are still - even now - not prepared to face up to the fact that all agreements between adult, mature nations require compromise, and to accept this truth is to admit they have been lying about this all along.

5/ They are choosing to go for no deal because they've pretended this is a valid negotiating tactic, when it isn't. Telling the other party you'll set fire to yourself if they don't agree to set fire to themselves isn't a winning strategy.

6/ They choose no deal because they pretended all along that it would be fine, so now, faced with a cliff edge they said was completely safe, like an 8yo trying to dare his mates into eating the dog turd, now they've had their bluff called they've got to go through with the dare.

7/ They are choosing to go for no deal because they they put their own interests above those of the people they were elected to represent. Johnson's priorities are:
1) Johnson
*tumbleweed*
46) The Conservative Party
*more tumbleweed*

117) interests of the country

8/ The preservation of the lie that put him in power is more important to Johnson than the preservation of the country.

9/ The EU has moved on from Brexit. Unlike us, they've actually prepared for no deal. They are ready. It'll cost them some, but that's cushioned a bit by business and regulatory bodies relocating from the UK to the EU.

10/ So we're heading for no deal on the basis of an empty threat.
Today's news about plans to rewrite the Withdrawal Agreement domestically makes that outcome far more likely.
Because what the UK is doing, in effect, is telling the world that we cannot be trusted.

11/ I'll repeat that point, because it is important.

The UK is telling the world, in big neon letters, that we will not keep our promises.

12/ The immediate effect of that may be to put any negotiations with the EU on a future relationship into disarray. Right when we are almost out of time, the UK is signalling that it is looking unilaterally to rewrite some of the foundation for that future relationship.

13/ The long-term effect is going to be to make it very much harder for us to sign any treaties, with *anybody*. Not just because other countries are likely to want to know what our largest trading relationship - with the EU - is going to look like before they jump in.

14/ (If we can get a deal off the ground at all. For example, major figures in the US Senate have said that if we undermine the Good Friday Agreement by trashing the WA, we can kiss any chance of a US trade deal goodbye.)

15/ Because we have shown we cannot be trusted, other countries will not be prepared to trust us. Areas of their economies may be shut off to us, because they cannot be sure they can be safe in letting us in.

16/ Or, if they do let us in, they will want either really big concessions from us to offset the risk, or really tight rules on our behaviour.

17/ This is exactly the thing the Brexiters rail against, having to abide by "other people's rules". But by acting as they have, our Government have made it inevitable there'll be more of those rules.

18/ If your idea of sovereignty is founded on this idea of not being a rule taker, you should be very angry at our Government right now.

19/ The UK wanted a special deal that reflected our unique position. The EU said fine, but it needs rules for how it will operate. All the UK govt is doing now is demonstrating that the EU is right to want those rules.

20/ And rewriting the WA may all be for nought. You can't just tear up a treaty. You don't just have a quick debate in Parliament and it all goes away. The UK faces being humiliatingly dragged back to abide by the WA, one way or another, regardless of what our domestic law says.

21/ So we're almost certain to be no-deal at the end of the year. Johnson is very breezy about this, saying he'll still be prepared to talk with the EU about co-operation in certain areas "if the EU wants to do that." With this statement, he simply hangs our country out to dry.

22/ Our hauliers only have a fraction of the permits they will need to operate after Jan 1. Our chemical industry relies on cooperation and tight rules in order to import/export. Our car mfrs rely on safety rules that are underpinned by a shared understanding.

23/ In countless areas - food safety, data handling, security, crime, fisheries, farming - our producers, manufacturers, consumers need to have a basis on which to operate. Without it, many many businesses cannot operate.

24/ To say - as Johnson does - that he is just going to walk away from his responsibility to sort all this - is a profound dereliction of a fundamental duty of his government.

25/ Everybody relies on international trade, not just the small % of companies who directly trade internationally. We all eat food, use fuel. Our small businesses use imported parts, or store data in the cloud. We all rely on our security and police services to protect us.

26/ In no deal, whole swathes of industry are smashed into a wall. Chemicals, cars, farming, fishing, science and research, all reeling from COVID, are going to have the floor open up underneath them.

27/ On govt estimates, we may lose over 1m jobs. Those million people are not easily going to walk into other jobs. There won't be other jobs. This isn't just a shock in one area, like when the coal mines closed down. It's going to be nationwide, systemic.

28/ Reeling from CV19, we're going to have a massive reduction in the tax take, right when the Government is going to find itself with 1m+ more people out of work to support. The safety net is going to be very frayed. Many people are likely to slip through.

29/ Even if you don't lose your job, and aren't asked to take a pay cut as a thankyou for staying in work, you are about to find everything gets a lot more expensive. If you can even get it.

30/ On even conservative estimates, there are going to be significant gaps and shortages in foods, medicines and other goods, some lasting months, some permanent. There are also credible reports we may see power cuts and water rationing.

31/ One study estimated the flow of goods through our ports would drop by more than 80% *for months* after a no deal. If it does, and the Government prioritises key goods like food and medicine, you will find yourself waiting months for parts for your car, or your central heating

32/ And, having reached this point in this thread, with the UK on the verge of paralysis, I'll highlight again that this is happening by choice. Boris Johnson could have taken a different path. He has chosen this. And here's why.

33/ They've built this entire edifice - Brexit, their govt - on lies. They lie, and when caught out lie some more, tamp it down with a big helping of more lies, until it's a big bed of lies and nobody remembers where the truth was.

34/ This works for a while, with a domestic audience, but now it has crashed against the rocks of reality. Do we think they are going to admit now that they lied to get us here, and switch to the truth to pull us free?

35/ Of course not. Because there is always the next lie. The next misdirection. The next person to blame, while pretending they themselves are blameless. It's all they've got.

36/ They don't want to put in the hard work. They certainly haven't got the competence to fix this. So it's on with the lies, and misdirection, and blame-shifting.