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An additional two weeks in lockdown is hard on all of us in Victoria but the alternative would mean our COVID-19 case numbers would again go back up.
(Thread 1/17)
(Thread 1/17)
We’d then see more deaths and more people with horrible long-term health complications (including damage to hearts, lungs, kidneys, and brains) and we’d almost certainly be back in a third lockdown around Christmas time.
2/17
2/17
We can see from overseas that case numbers are going up again in many places that thought they were over their worst.
3/17
3/17
In Israel, for example, they locked down hard in March & April & had success with regards to getting case numbers under control. They have subsequently chosen to go for more open approach & now have close to the highest per capita numbers of daily new cases in the world.
4/17
4/17
We can’t predict how things will go in the Northern Hemisphere as they return from their summer vacations and head towards cooler weather (which will force activities back inside where more transmissions occur).
5/17
5/17
We do hope, however, that the Northern Hemisphere doesn’t follow the pattern of Spanish Flu in the latter half of 1918 (see the graph of Spanish Flu deaths).
6/17
6/17
Although COVID-1 is a very different infection to Spanish Flu with a lower mortality, both these respiratory infections travelled around the world rapidly due to their high transmissibility.
7/17
7/17
We can imagine that people around the world probably thought in August - September of 1918 that the problem was all over.
8/17
8/17
We are in the relatively lucky position of only having about 0.1% of our population catch COVID-19 so far.
9/17
9/17
As an island, far from world’s COVID-19 hotspots, we can observe how things go in coming mths– both with genuine 2nd waves of cases as well as developments with vaccines & therapeutics– before working out approach that's best for both health (incl. mental) & economy.
10/17
10/17
We can see that even those countries that remained open, intentionally or otherwise, are seeing hugely negative economic impacts on top of rates of death and long-term health damage that dwarfs what we have had so far.
11/17
11/17
Indeed, the countries with the fewest deaths tend to be the ones with the best performing economies.
12/17
12/17
Our daily case numbers in Melb are much better than they were a month ago but we still have many active cases & presumably some unknown cases who can pass this on & push numbers back up. We’re seeing a handful of cases of what looks like second infection around the world.
13/17
13/17
Some cases are less severe the second time but some are more severe. We’re still learning so many things about this virus.
14/17
14/17
The public health experts who have been brought in to advise about our best way to manage this awful situation are not members of any political party and are considering all consequences for their approach, not just the direct health impacts from COVID-19.
15/17
15/17
They are absolutely aware of how hard this is for our state. But I know that after speaking to colleagues from overseas who have been hit harder than us by COVID-19, they would happily swap places with us.
16/17
16/17
Yes, this is hard, but we can get through this best by working together, supporting each other, and controlling the spread of this horrid virus.
17/17
17/17
