No doubt that the covid-19 situation in France is now more worrying than in the UK. But British complacency seems to me misguided. In early August France also thought it had the virus under control post-lock-down.

(chart via @jburnmurdoch) 1/5

New cases in UK on Sept 6 = 2,988
France was at this level (2,846) on August 14th. Since then numbers in France have surged.
Daily new cases on Fridays:

Aug 21: 4,586
Aug 28: 7,379
Sep 4: 8,975

2/5

Both countries are testing widely now. Both are finding most new cases among the young, so hospitalisations remain low. But French admissions are rising. French health minister @olivierveran expects rise in “serious cases” within 14 days 3/5

Is UK really managing exit from lock-down better than France, as UK health minister Matt Hancock claims, because of UK “test-and-trace system working so effectively” and “the quarantine and social distancing policies.” 4/5

Or is UK just 3 weeks behind a similar French covid19 trend? I’m no epidemiologist but it seems improbable that the UK will avoid an upward surge similar to that in France, despite government claims to the contrary 5/5

Sources: https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases