This is where the House of Lords could and should show its mettle. https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1302701541674160134

(a) There is nothing about this in the 2019 Tory election manifesto. Indeed that manifesto said that the Withdrawal Agreement was an excellent “oven ready” deal. So the “Salisbury convention” doesn’t apply. Indeed, the HoL would be holding the Govt to its manifesto.

(b) The House of Lords takes the rule of law seriously. “Overwriting” the WA in this way would be a clear and flagrant breach of Article 4 of the WA.

(c) The Conservatives have no majority there. And many Conservative peers will be horrified by - and will refuse to vote for - a flagrant breach on international law.

(d) The HoL cannot in the end veto. But it can delay for a year. And delay is enough, here, since the relevant bits of the WA begin to bite on 1/1/21.

(e) Indeed, given the timing, even a bit of guerrilla warfare in the HoL (and/or HoC, though a guillotine motion would be enough to stop that) would create sufficient delay.

(f) Remember, too, that this Bill will be desperately controversial *anyway* because of its impact on the devolution settlement. See https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/white-paper-scotland-westminster-devolution-internal-market-eu

(g) And all this is months before the Holyrood elections. Hard to think of anything that serves the SNP’s “runaway train” argument that a UK govt that is both trampling over the devolution settlement and flagrantly breaching UK treaty obligations. https://twitter.com/georgeperetzqc/status/1299396649803018244

BUT caution: the UK Govt seems to think that bluff and “we really are that mad” posturing is a great negotiating strategy (and perhaps believes, or at least knows that some of its supporters believe, the puff that it “worked last time”).

So take a deep breath before believing any of this.