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Victoria Roadmap Modelling:
This is the study published by @unimelb and @UniNewEngland. It's not a final publication
https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/2020-09/Blakely%20%28v2%29%20mja20.01292%20-%204%20September%202020.pdf
The effort is respected, but it's a shame that it's EXTREMELY conservative, many/miss assumptions, and one sided modelling.
Continued.. https://twitter.com/ConarMark/status/1302521633756729345
This is the study published by @unimelb and @UniNewEngland. It's not a final publication
https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/2020-09/Blakely%20%28v2%29%20mja20.01292%20-%204%20September%202020.pdf
The effort is respected, but it's a shame that it's EXTREMELY conservative, many/miss assumptions, and one sided modelling.
Continued.. https://twitter.com/ConarMark/status/1302521633756729345
Extremely conservative:
- Turnover +tests - 6 days!
- asymptomatic cases - 25%
- infectiousness of asymptomatic - 33%
- COVID-Safe App Uptake - 20% (
)
- Incubation period - 5.1 days
- illness period - 20.8 days, sd = 2
Some cited Mar/20 studies & "Expert" opinion
Continued..
- Turnover +tests - 6 days!
- asymptomatic cases - 25%
- infectiousness of asymptomatic - 33%
- COVID-Safe App Uptake - 20% (
)- Incubation period - 5.1 days
- illness period - 20.8 days, sd = 2
Some cited Mar/20 studies & "Expert" opinion
Continued..
Assumptions:
- Contract tracing efficiency is not considered
- Iceland example as an isolated island not considered
- Modelling considered elimination and not suppression or "Flatten curve"
- Random movements....
- Masks are 80% effective - (check the study cited)
Continued...
- Contract tracing efficiency is not considered
- Iceland example as an isolated island not considered
- Modelling considered elimination and not suppression or "Flatten curve"
- Random movements....
- Masks are 80% effective - (check the study cited)
Continued...
One sided view of data
- Most of the cited resources are funded from @WHO
- Unorthodox countries such as Japan, Sweden, etc... are mostly not considered in the studies
- Systematic review of studies vary immensely. (some study consider mask 3% effective and some 98%)
Continued
- Most of the cited resources are funded from @WHO
- Unorthodox countries such as Japan, Sweden, etc... are mostly not considered in the studies
- Systematic review of studies vary immensely. (some study consider mask 3% effective and some 98%)
Continued
Conclusion:
This study is another example of crystal ball. It'll be proven wrong soon. Biased and considers elimination.
Turnover of +tests is 6 days. This alone is a major contributor from only the government side of delaying opening. #COVID19Vic #springst
This study is another example of crystal ball. It'll be proven wrong soon. Biased and considers elimination.
Turnover of +tests is 6 days. This alone is a major contributor from only the government side of delaying opening. #COVID19Vic #springst
