Victoria Roadmap Modelling:

This is the study published by @unimelb and @UniNewEngland. It& #39;s not a final publication

https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/2020-09/Blakely%20%28v2%29%20mja20.01292%20-%204%20September%202020.pdf

The">https://www.mja.com.au/system/fi... effort is respected, but it& #39;s a shame that it& #39;s EXTREMELY conservative, many/miss assumptions, and one sided modelling.

Continued.. https://twitter.com/ConarMark/status/1302521633756729345">https://twitter.com/ConarMark...

Extremely conservative:

- Turnover +tests - 6 days!
- asymptomatic cases - 25%
- infectiousness of asymptomatic - 33%
- COVID-Safe App Uptake - 20% (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😂" title="Gesicht mit Freudentränen" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Freudentränen">)
- Incubation period - 5.1 days
- illness period - 20.8 days, sd = 2

Some cited Mar/20 studies & "Expert" opinion

Continued..

Assumptions:

- Contract tracing efficiency is not considered
- Iceland example as an isolated island not considered
- Modelling considered elimination and not suppression or "Flatten curve"
- Random movements....
- Masks are 80% effective - (check the study cited)

Continued...

One sided view of data

- Most of the cited resources are funded from @WHO
- Unorthodox countries such as Japan, Sweden, etc... are mostly not considered in the studies
- Systematic review of studies vary immensely. (some study consider mask 3% effective and some 98%)

Continued

Conclusion:

This study is another example of crystal ball. It& #39;ll be proven wrong soon. Biased and considers elimination.

Turnover of +tests is 6 days. This alone is a major contributor from only the government side of delaying opening. #COVID19Vic #springst