Read on Twitter
A fact-check of Simon Thornley& #39;s appearance on @NZQandA yesterday. Thornley begins by citing the "Ioannidis study" showing a #Covid19 death rate "only marginally higher than the standard flu viruses". I believe this is the study he& #39;s referring to. (1/16) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3.full.pdf">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1...
In the paper, Ioannidis conducts a meta-analysis of antibody surveys to determine how widespread Covid-19 is in different places and then compares the deaths associated with those places to arrive at an estimate of the IFR (see explainer) of 0.24%. (2/16) https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19">https://www.who.int/news-room...
Part of the problem is many of these antibody surveys - including Ioannidis& #39; own - have been criticised for using inaccurate tests and applying estimates to entire populations from too-small sample sizes. More on these surveys here, from May. (3/16) https://www.newsroom.co.nz/is-asymptomatic-covid-19-really-that-widespread">https://www.newsroom.co.nz/is-asympt...
It& #39;s worth noting that the 0.24% figure is well below the CDC& #39;s IFR estimate (0.65%) and the WHO& #39;s (0.5-1%). But is Thornley right that 0.24% is "only marginally higher" than the IFR of the flu? No - seasonal flu IFR is about 0.04% per below. (4/16) https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1233740643249336320">https://twitter.com/ChristoPh...
That means, even with Ioannidis& #39; watered down IFR, #Covid19 still kills six times as many infected people as the flu. If the CDC is right, then it& #39;s 11 times more deadly. If the WHO& #39;s upper bound projection is right, then it& #39;s 25 times worse. Hardly marginal. (5/16)
Next fact-check - Thornley compares the WHO& #39;s early case fatality rate projection of 3.4% with current IFR projections. This is apples and oranges as the below thread demonstrates - it simply makes no sense. By the way, CFR today is still 3.3%. (6/16) https://twitter.com/marcdaalder/status/1300633561821659136">https://twitter.com/marcdaald...
. @JackTame rightly points out that Thornley is wrong to point to empty hospitals during Level 4 as evidence of our ability to scale up to beat the virus. NZ still hasn& #39;t had a massive outbreak that threatened our health system capacity - 40,000 cases, per @PunahaMatatini. (7/16)
Thornley cites an analysis of the impact of lockdowns on #Covid19 spread. While he& #39;s right that it didn& #39;t show an impact on death or case numbers, it did show an impact on recovery rates. This below is from the conclusion of the paper. (8/16)
Of course, there are more factors at play than just "did country x lockdown, yes or no?" The timing is important -NZ has always locked down with relatively few cases compared to the UK or US locking down after weeks of community transmission. (9/16)
Plus, as Tame points out, it& #39;s weird to cite an analysis of how lockdowns went in other countries when we *know* it worked in New Zealand as evidenced by spending two months at Level 1 with more freedoms than almost anywhere else in the world. (10/16)
Thornley argues against a strategy of "ongoing lockdowns to control the virus". He& #39;ll be glad to know that& #39;s not New Zealand& #39;s strategy! More below. (11/16) https://www.newsroom.co.nz/eliminating-covid-19-without-lockdowns">https://www.newsroom.co.nz/eliminati...
Not a fact-check, but it& #39;s worth noting from a journo perspective that Thornley never answered how he would protect vulnerable people. Here& #39;s who he& #39;d have to protect. (12/16)
How are we going to have a functioning health system and economy if we have to lock away for months 1.1 million over 60s, 250,000 people with type 2 diabetes, 700,000 asthmatics, 1.5 million current and former smokers, etc.? Probably an important q to answer.... (13/16)
Thornley says we should follow Iceland& #39;s strategy for restrictions. But since May 14, a majority of New Zealanders have been living freer lives than people in Iceland, including through the present outbreak where two thirds of us have remained at L2. (14/16)
Thornley is wrong in claiming European mortality data shows #Covid19 deaths are those who we& #39;d have expected to die. Excess mortality data shows 200,000 more Europeans have died so far than would be expected to, including 187,000 people over 65. (15/16) https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/">https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-an...
Finally, Thornley says there& #39;s been little debate over #Covid19 strategy in NZ. That& #39;s an odd claim to be making on live television, after writing an op-ed for Newsroom the week prior and amidst a concerted effort by columnists to back the Plan B path, but 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷" title="Person shrugging" aria-label="Emoji: Person shrugging">. (16/16)
