1) Montreal now appears to be at the beginning of a new resurgence in #COVID19 cases, with younger Montrealers likely driving the latest community transmission, as they did in July. In this thread, I’ll try to assess what this means in the fast-changing #pandemic.

2) The city posted 57 new #COVID19 cases Sunday, down from 68 the day before. The city’s rolling seven-day average has reached 18.82 cases per million population. The Quebec government has set a threshold of 20 cases per million to consider partial lockdowns of bars, for example.

3) The Eastern Townships has already averaged eight days with an incidence of 20 cases per million inhabitants, while Quebec City has done so for six days. Laval and the Outaouais are tied for four days in a row. Meanwhile, the province reported a surprising 205 cases Sunday.

4) Among the regions that were numbering lots of new cases Sunday were the Montérégie (48), Quebec City (32) and the Laurentians (18). The Quebec City region has witnessed major outbreaks that have been traced to drinking establishments, including a karaoke bar.

5) Some observers will argue, as @realDonaldTrump has, that Quebec is recording more cases because it’s testing more. But as policy analyst @Patrickdery tweeted today, the testing positivity rate climbed to 1.8% from 0.62% in the third week of August, suggesting a true spike.

6) Whether this will lead to a surge in hospitalizations remains to be seen, given that many of those who've tested positive for the #coronavirus are in their 20s and 30s, less likely to go to hospital. On Sunday, though, Quebec observed a net increase of eight hospitalizations.

7) The last resurgence in the metropolis was triggered after Quebec permitted bars to reopen early, on June 25, a decision blamed for multiple outbreaks. The reopening of bars was also misinterpreted by many to hold house parties, leading to further outbreaks.

8) The new resurgence follows Quebec's decision to boost public gatherings to 250 on Aug. 3 despite concerns raised by physicians. Again, this decision was misinterpreted by many younger Quebecers to hold large events, including a massive dance party on Mount-Royal Aug. 16.

9) And obviously, the current resurgence comes right after 3,000 schools reopened across Quebec. Of that number, 84 schools have been identified as of Sunday evening where at least one student or teacher has tested positive, according to http://covidecolesquebec.org .

10) In Montreal, 24 schools have been identified, up from 23 Saturday, according to the map below. The large majority of schools have not reported actual outbreaks, but one would be naïve to assume this will continue with widespread transmission of the #coronavirus.

11) At the neighborhood level, the Plateau Mont-Royal was back to counting #COVID19 cases in the double digits Sunday, a dozen to be exact. See the chart below. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and other east-end districts were also noting a smattering of cases.

12) In tomorrow’s thread, I will drill down deeper to try to make more sense of what’s going on. For now, though, let me end with a bit of good news: Neither the province nor the city declared any #COVID19 deaths Sunday. End of thread and enjoy the Labor Day weekend safely.