4C global warming by 2100 seems to be much more likely than a lot of people realise

It doesn& #39;t even need one of the highest emissions scenarios. RCP6.0 (considered likely with current policies) gives that much warming fairly near the middle of the range in our latest projections

For RCP6.0 and current policies, see this from the Hausfather & Peters Nature comment

They label it 3C but that& #39;s the central estimate, & I don& #39;t think it accounts for uncertainties in carbon cycle feedbacks like the UKCP18 probabilistic projections do

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3">https://www.nature.com/articles/...

Hausfather and Ritchie made their own "current policies" estimate of global warming by 2100 based on extending the International Energy Agency scenarios with different assumptions

Again the central estimate was +3C, but +4C by 2100 was within the range

https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/3c-world">https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/en...