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4C global warming by 2100 seems to be much more likely than a lot of people realise
It doesn't even need one of the highest emissions scenarios. RCP6.0 (considered likely with current policies) gives that much warming fairly near the middle of the range in our latest projections
It doesn't even need one of the highest emissions scenarios. RCP6.0 (considered likely with current policies) gives that much warming fairly near the middle of the range in our latest projections
For RCP6.0 and current policies, see this from the Hausfather & Peters Nature comment
They label it 3C but that's the central estimate, & I don't think it accounts for uncertainties in carbon cycle feedbacks like the UKCP18 probabilistic projections do
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
They label it 3C but that's the central estimate, & I don't think it accounts for uncertainties in carbon cycle feedbacks like the UKCP18 probabilistic projections do
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
Hausfather and Ritchie made their own "current policies" estimate of global warming by 2100 based on extending the International Energy Agency scenarios with different assumptions
Again the central estimate was +3C, but +4C by 2100 was within the range
https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/3c-world
Again the central estimate was +3C, but +4C by 2100 was within the range
https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/3c-world
