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I am not claiming any great insight here (my cynicism is probably based on an Irish school education than anything else), but almost every blog I have written about Brexit since 2017 has envisaged this very thing happening. /1 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1302701541674160134">https://twitter.com/pmdfoster...
In January 2018:
“... the oft-lauded flexibility of the ‘constitution’ arguably make the UK a potentially unstable and unreliable negotiating partner: there will, for example, be no entrenched or judicially enforceable domestic legal principle that will prevent Parliament... /2
“... the oft-lauded flexibility of the ‘constitution’ arguably make the UK a potentially unstable and unreliable negotiating partner: there will, for example, be no entrenched or judicially enforceable domestic legal principle that will prevent Parliament... /2
from reneging on whatever agreement, if any, the EU and the UK reach on the latter’s withdrawal.”
https://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/blog/2018/01/let?s-give-emperor-some-real-clothes">https://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/blog/2018... /3
https://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/blog/2018/01/let?s-give-emperor-some-real-clothes">https://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/blog/2018... /3
Then two from earlier this year (okay, very late in the day, in which I mentioned the possibility that the WA and NI Protocol were signed to simply move the process to the international law plane, where the UK govt would feel freer to renege... /4
http://dcubrexitinstitute.eu/2020/04/the-good-friday-agreement-the-northern-ireland-protocol-and-eternal-vigilance/">https://dcubrexitinstitute.eu/2020/04/t... /5
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/03/06/did-article-50s-design-partially-incentivise-bad-faith-dealing/">https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/20... /6
It’s the one aspect of Brexit that I don’t think many in the EU grasped. It was not a grown-up decision of a stable and dependable country, but a symptom of a very volatile entity in the throes of a major identity crisis. /7
Moreover, a State which has very few elements built into its constitutional system to ensure stability or continuity. A State which appeared to have lost interest in being a rational economic actor or in maintaining an international reputation as trustworthy. /8
Of course, the EU was locked into negotiating an agreement and, in the end, did well to conclude the agreement it did. But, there was nothing the EU can do to stop the UK if it is determined to go down the path of self-destruction. /9
There’s also no point in pretending that there will not be political and economic consequences for the UK’s neighbours either, if the UK does go down this path. Nothing as grave as what the UK itself will suffer, but still... /END
