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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">UK planning legislation to override key parts of #brexit withdrawal treaty and Northern Ireland protocol - a potentially HUGE move in negotiations; major ructions in Whitehall - my latest via @FT https://on.ft.com/2FeQyY4 ">https://on.ft.com/2FeQyY4&q...
Per three sources with knowledge of plans the UK Internal Market bill (due on Weds) and this autumn& #39;s Finance Bill will contain clauses that “eliminate the legal force of parts of the withdrawal agreement”. The EU are unlikely to like this - which I guess is the point /2
Given @MichelBarnier
insistence on the "precise implementation" of the Withdrawal Agreement, the decision to legislate in a way that dilutes those obligations - on State Aid, export summary declarations and tariffs - is not likely to go down well with the EU /3
insistence on the "precise implementation" of the Withdrawal Agreement, the decision to legislate in a way that dilutes those obligations - on State Aid, export summary declarations and tariffs - is not likely to go down well with the EU /3
A person familiar with the plans said they would “clearly and consciously” undermine the agreement on Northern Ireland that Boris Johnson signed last October - but which in the light of the diamond-hard Brexit he& #39;s negotiating, now looks very difficult. /4
A second person familiar with the plans said they were a "blunt instrument" that would directly "set up UK law in opposition with obligations under the withdrawal agreement, and in full cognisance that this will breach international law.” /5
A lot of Whitehall is *deeply* uncomfortable with this approach.
Foreign Office not sure how it can criticise China for not meeting international obligation if UK is paring back obligations of a Treaty it signed in less than a year ago.
Or help Int Trade dept sign deals /6
Foreign Office not sure how it can criticise China for not meeting international obligation if UK is paring back obligations of a Treaty it signed in less than a year ago.
Or help Int Trade dept sign deals /6
Brexiters - who have been calling on @BorisJohnson to ditch the Withdrawal Agreement - will like this move.
And in a & #39;no deal& #39; scenario, where the UK seeks untrammeled sovereignty, it has a powerful logic. /7
And in a & #39;no deal& #39; scenario, where the UK seeks untrammeled sovereignty, it has a powerful logic. /7
The problem is that @BorisJohnson promised to remove the UK from the EU "whole and entire" - but it has become clear that his Northern Irish & #39;frontstop& #39; does not do that to the satisfaction of Brexiters.
See this @CentreBrexit report: /8 https://centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/publications/replacing-the-withdrawal-agreement-how-to-ensure-the-uk-takes-back-control-on-exiting-the-transition-period/">https://centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/publicati...
See this @CentreBrexit report: /8 https://centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/publications/replacing-the-withdrawal-agreement-how-to-ensure-the-uk-takes-back-control-on-exiting-the-transition-period/">https://centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/publicati...
The biggest problem is Article 10 - which says that Northern Ireland must follow EU state aid rules AND that EU law (Annex 5) shall apply to the *United Kingdom* (and not just in respect of Northern Ireland. /9
For Brexiters that creates a potential huge trojan horse for Brussels to reach back into UK policy even in the event of a "clean-break" not deal - the UK Govt would have to notify Brussels of S.Aid decision that impacted companies in NI. /10
Sources say that UK Internal Market Bill will contain "notwithstanding clauses" - i& #39;e & #39;notwithstanding our obligations under the protocol& #39; define in a far narrower way what the Northern Irish Protocol means on state aid and unfettered access for NI trade to GB. /11
As @jamesrwebber of Shearman & Sterling tells me, this would effectively work to supersede elements of the Protocol, and define its scope more narrowly in legal terms. /12
The plan - which I understand has been backed personally by @DavidGHFrost
would “clearly and consciously” undermine the Protocol....which both sides were working hard to implement. The move divided Whitehall at the highest levels. /13
would “clearly and consciously” undermine the Protocol....which both sides were working hard to implement. The move divided Whitehall at the highest levels. /13
A goverment said it was “working hard to resolve outstanding issues” with the Northern Ireland protocol in good faith. But added: “As a responsible government, we are considering fall-back options in the event this is not achieved to ensure the communities of NI are protected”/14
There are those who believe passionately that - in a deal scenario - the NI Protocol can still be made to work, but the harder the #Brexit that is being negotiated, the harder that becomes. /15
Recall that the @BorisJohnson & #39;frontstop& #39; was negotiated with the Political Declaration along side it - a declaration that talked about a State Aid regime, a level playing field between both sides and a comprehensive FTA. All of that now looks very distant /16
So if we really are heading for & #39;no deal& #39;, a free hand on State Aid and sovereignty is the priority above all else - then it is hard to see how this government could live with Protocol as it stands /17
Is this a gambit? A move to try and force the EU to re-write the protocol or - if not - have a hands-free & #39;no deal& #39; all the same.
I& #39;ve been doing this long enough (think back to Oct 2019) not to make foolhardy predictions....we& #39;ll have to see. /18
I& #39;ve been doing this long enough (think back to Oct 2019) not to make foolhardy predictions....we& #39;ll have to see. /18
How the EU reacts will be interesting. It may depend just how brazenly the legislation cuts across the Protocol.
@MichelBarnier has been determinedly calm these last few months - he may remain so. Wait and see how it plays out. I don& #39;t know. /19
@MichelBarnier has been determinedly calm these last few months - he may remain so. Wait and see how it plays out. I don& #39;t know. /19