The peak of new #covid cases per day was c.20 April, By which point around 130,000 cases had been recorded.
By this same point the official death count was already 20,000+.
Using these figures would give a deaths/cases ratio of 15%

(I’ll ignore the lag that means some of the new cases recorded in the 2 weeks before would sadly result in additional deaths, and just use those figures.)

At that point the ratio of official deaths to official cases was over 10 times the expected death rate.
Did we get a different strain? Have a uniquely susceptible population?
Or is it more likely that actual case levels were 10 times this amount?

Remember, testing wasn’t widely available - you basically had to be in hospital to get one, so it’s possible cases were 10 times as high.

Even at 10 times the official cases the death rate still comes out at a toppy 1.5%.

If we look at excess deaths the picture gets even crazier.
By 20 April excess deaths were already over 30,000.
That would give an excess death to official cases ratio of 23%.

(Again, those official cases would result in even more deaths so the ratio would go up from there)

Bottom line here is, that it is safe to assume that cases were underestimated by *at least* a factor of 10 (possibly 20) prior to the peak.

And why does that matter?

It matters because there’s a lot of noise about how cases are rising yet hospitalisations and deaths are not.

Cases seem to be at roughly 1/3rd of the level they were at the peak (around the level they were at end of March). So some are saying the virus is done, it’s weaker, it’s not to be worried about...

This is dangerous.

There are 2 factors at play here.

The first is that actual cases are not the same as they were at end of March, there are likely 10 times fewer cases than then, we are not at 1/3rd of the peak, and are likely only 1/30th of the peak.

This would mean we are more like the levels we were at 05 March, by which time official deaths were only 2, yes, two.

The scope for the exponential growth we saw from 05 March has not disappeared, the virus is still the same virus.

And just as we are at the same dangerous point we were then (or will be soon), the gov and their tame pets in the media are screaming at us to all go back to the office and get on commuter trains.

That’s bad, that’s really bad. And it’s only going to get worse as the weather turns and we all spend more time indoors.

The second factor at play here is that those most at risk are taking more precautions. Meaning the healthier/younger/less vulnerable population account for the vast majority of cases now - proportionally more than before

This is undoubtedly a good thing. And it likely means that even if we do see exponential growth in cases over the next 3-4 weeks we won’t see hospitalisations and deaths increase like we did in March.

*But*

That brings a huge risk of complacency. And that complacency helps the virus spread. By October it could be so prevalent it becomes almost impossible for those at risk to avoid.

And again, just as the weather is turning and everyone stays inside in poorly ventilated spaces, just as the furlough scheme ends, and just as the effect of 1 month of the press badgering us all to return to the office >

The UK will sleepwalk into a perfect storm of an exponentially growing virus that will hospitalise and/or kill tens of thousands this winter.

This will of course wreak havoc on not just many peoples lives, but also on the economy.

There’s a way to avoid all this. But it involves the gov throwing away its ideological chains, being willing to take the steps necessary to ensure people can isolate, and aren’t forced to risk catching and spreading the virus.

Right on cue, here comes one of the ringmasters for the far right. Setting the tone and topic of conversation for the next few weeks which will go something like this: “low hospitalisation, low deaths, so don’t worry about cases spiking, get back into the office”

They are *so* predictable

Tobes (to nobody’s surprise) weighing in too.
Do they have a WhatsApp group or do they just follow the lead of whoever most likely to have spoken to the owner of a newspaper?

Ally P too (again to nobody’s surprise)

And of course Dan doing his bit

Ally P was even more outrageous before: spawning anti-bad mentality by pretending some people don’t want a cure, they just want a vaccine

The big question here is wether cases were underreported by a factor of 10, or of 20.
If only 10 we would expect (if growth not stopped) to see deaths begin to increase in a couple of weeks (while still remaining low) in 2 weeks.
If 20 then much more like 4 weeks.

Hospitalisations you would think would start to creep up around 10 days before the (creep, this may look like noise at first but should be detectable pattern in 2 [if f=10] or 4 [if f=20] weeks)

BUT

If only the less vulnerable are getting it (for now) those hospitalisation and deaths may not rise even then.
Eventually though it will be too prevalent for the higher risk to avoid contact - we don’t want to get to that point

Many are pointing out that we are testing more now (even than we were 2 weeks ago) and saying this accounts for the rise in cases meaning there is nothing to worry about

My own view is that people are getting tested because they are worried they have it. If they were worried 2 weeks ago they would have got tested. So I do think actual cases are rising rather than we are at the same level but it looks like rising because we are testing more

Guess that’s plausible though. Numbers remain relatively low overall (compared to March - assuming that a much higher proportion being detected now than were then), so either we will see a plateau because it was just due to more testing. Or cases will keep rising.

The limiting factor a few weeks ago was not testing capacity so I find it harder to believe numbers rising relative to 2 weeks ago is just due to increased testing.

Prior to peak testing was a limiting factor (if I’m right that cases were 10 times higher pre peak, and we are similar volumes now to 05 March then people didn’t even *think* to get tested back then, we thought it wasn’t here)