A thread of options for the Jets at second line centre for next season with some base stats and my thoughts. Will start within the organization and then branch out.

Blake Wheeler:

WAR: 1.1
xWAR: 1.2

By the numbers Wheeler actually had a pretty decent season this year. As opposed to the two previous seasons, his defensive impact was fairly strong. He was about average in terms of generating offence and driving possession at even strength.

I have two concerns here. First is even if we expect the same results going forward, he’s an average player at even strength. Second is I can’t see those results holding up since he tends to perform better on the wing than at Centre. Wheeler would be best as a middle 6 winger.

Andrew Copp:

WAR: 0.9
xWAR: 1.3

I will preface this by saying much of Copp’s value lost in this season was the translation from even strength xGoals to actual goals. This has never been an issue for him before, so that can be expected to bounce back to normal.

Andrew Copp is a very good shot generator and shot preventer. He tilts the ice in the right direction for his team and that’s something the top 6 sorely lacks. The only other top 6 forward the Jets have that does this is Nikolaj Ehlers.

Copp defends well which is also something the Jets don’t have much of in the top 6. When Copp spent a short time as the Jets’ 2C, there were two lines that were used:

Connor-Copp-Ehlers
Ehlers-Copp-Wheeler

They were the Jets’ first and second best lines respectively in terms of shot share with a minimum of 50 minutes of TOI. They were also 6th and 5th respectively in terms of xGoal differential. The samples are too small to draw anythjng meaningful from goal data.

When we take a deeper look into the stats, it would seem obvious that the Jets’ second line was at its best with Copp in the middle. Not only is he a fine 2C but he could be a part of a really good second line if he plays with guys who can generate offence and finish.

Jack Roslovic

WAR: 0.5
xWAR: 0

Jack Roslovic took a bit of a step back this year. Particularly in his defensive game. To me Roslovic is a potential breakout candidate for the Jets next year, but not at centre.

From my own observation, it seems that when Roslovic moves to centre he doesn’t make reads anywhere near as quickly and he seems tentative. To me his skill set is very nice but it’s better served on the wing where he doesn’t necessarily have to think as much.

Roslovic did produce some decent results at centre in a small sample with Appleton at RW and one of Harkins or Perreault at LW. With that said, it’s nowhere close to enough for me to consider him for the 2C spot.

Adam Lowry:

WAR: -0.1
xWAR: -0.5

It was a season for Adam Lowry that he would simply like to forget. Pretty much everything from a play driving standpoint took a big nosedive, and he didn’t feel like the dominant force he once was out there.

On the bright side for Lowry, he played very well in the five games vs. Calgary in the bubble. Perhaps it was injury or the style of play the team was playing that hurt Lowry’s game? Personally I would expect a bit of a bounce back season from him.

When he’s on his game, he’s generating a high number of shot attempts and is a great defender, much like Andrew Copp. Unlike Copp though, Lowry consistently has trouble translating xGoals into actual goals. Copp has also played more and had more success with offensive players.

So while there’s a chance Lowry could do fine in that role, I think it’s likely that Copp would have more success.

Max Domi:

WAR: 2.1
xWAR: 0.4

Max Domi is a guy who due to his playmaking ability, always seems to have goals outperform xGoals despite not being a great finisher. His overall impact certainly does represent that of a good second line centre.

My concern with him is a serious lack of defensive ability in a top 6 that already features Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and to a lesser degree, Patrik Laine. In order to incorporate Domi into that top 6 it may require Paul Maurice to change to an all out attacking system.

If there’s one thing Maurice has proven this year it’s that he’ll always lean towards defence over offence even when offence is the strength of their lineup. That’s my worry about acquiring Domi. Otherwise, if they added a strong defensive forward to the top 6, he could be a fit.

Anthony Cirelli:

WAR: 2.8
xWAR: 2

My favourite player on this list. Already a star in the NHL who is overshadowed in Tampa by the likes of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and when he’s healthy, Steven Stamkos.

He’s proven his value in back to back seasons, and he’s likely to be undervalued across the NHL due to a point total that doesn’t match up to his overall value. Cirelli is elite defensively, great offensively, especially as a playmaker.

He checks all the boxes in terms of fit in the Jets’ top 6 and can play every role except the finisher, which is completely fine considering the Jets have four excellent finishers in Laine, Scheifele, Connor, and Ehlers. Just an outstanding player. Very much worth an offer sheet.

There are some other options but Twitter won’t let me thread much longer, so I will stop here.