I start to believe there is growing possibility Berlin may announce suspension of Nord Stream 2 until the investigation of Alexey Navalny’s poisoning finds Russia guilty or not. /1 https://twitter.com/laurentruseckas/status/1302356551169171456

There is growing pressure for Germany to respond given previous hostile acts originated in Russia such as the Berlin killing by an alleged GRU operative and Bundestag hack. /2

Alternatively, can the project be suspended by Germany indefinitely until Russia’s general “change of behavior” or change of leadership? In this case can the project, from technical point of view, be resumed easily in order to complete, after, let’s say, several years? /3

In case of indefinite suspension or abandoning of NS2 project Germany can pay Gazprom voluntary compensation (a likely scenario) similarly to compensation France paid to Russia for Mistral ships not delivered due to sanctions force majeure. /4

In case of potential dispute it’s unclear what investment protection regime could be invoked by Gazprom/Nord Stream 2 for possible arbitration. Swiss-based NS2 company had tested using multilateral Energy Charter Treaty of which Germany and Switzerland are contracting parties. /5

Alternatively, I don’t exclude Gazprom as Russian parent of NS2 may try to invoke Soviet-German investment treaty of 1989. It implies Russian investments harmed on German soil due to “extraordinary circumstances” should be compensated in most favorable manner. /6

One of the caveats, however, is the size of that compensation. BIT protects Russian investments made literally on German territory. Only small part of the pipeline (85 km) plus receiving station is in Germany. It probably corresponds to ~€0.6 billion of investments. /7

If European companies’ (OMV, Shell etc.) loan investments in Nord Stream 2 get impaired (in case NS2, for example, stops servicing the loans which I see as unlikely), those companies may too demand some compensation from NS2 or Germany which would make it even more complicated./8