One 2020 concern was that powerful "higher tariff" universities (e.g. @RussellGroup ) would respond to weak demand by lowering grades, devastating recruitment elsewhere. This has not occurred. Demand is high, not low: total recruitment is at 508,090, a record for this point.(1/6)

Higher tariff universities have accommodated an exceptional increase in their intake. Three weeks after results they are nearly 17,000 up on this point last year. An 11% increase and by far the largest jump in the sequence. (2/6)

But the higher tariff growth has not been at the cost of a bad year for others. Medium tariff providers are 1,300 (0.8%) up, best move since 2017. Lower tariff providers are slightly down, c.800 (0.5%), their best recruitment change since 2014. (3/6)

Looking at the annual movement details gives more strong results for lower and medium tariff. They have both increased their UK recruitment this year (UK more likely to enroll). The fall in lower tariff recruitment can be attributable to their 1,100 fewer EU students. (4/6)

Rather than having a large EU/Int. recruitment 'hole' to fill, higher tariff providers have increased their recruitment of both EU and Inter students. Their international placed students are up almost 4,000, +16%, the strongest year on record.(5/6)

Higher tariff providers have also taken in more UK students, up 11,000 (12%) for England, more than any other year. The majority of this is post day 7, a result of them trying to help with the Government request to honour (much) higher CAG grades, not "predatory" growth. (6/6)