At some point both sides in the Brexit negotiations have to realise threatening no deal or warning of the consequences simply doesn't work & won't result in a shift of position on the other side. At no stage in these negotiations has it done so. A thread with some examples...1/

Johnson didn't shift on a more NI only Protocol last year due to fear of no deal. He shifted because it allowed for a more distant future relationship with EU than the backstop & because he needed a deal of some form to use in an election campaign focused on delivering Brexit 2/

Similarly the EU didn't shift on democratic consent in the Protocol last autumn due to fear the UK would leave without a deal (there was still no majority in Parliament for that) but because they actually thought Johnson may be able to deliver a deal through Parliament 3/

Any moves made under the May administration were not because of the fear of no deal - that was never going to get through Parliament - nor was it due to EU threats about the consequences etc. They were done to try and find something that would get through Parliament. 4/

Similarly EU moves during negotiations with the May Govt were because they thought they gave the best chance of delivering a deal, for example the eventual acceptance of a UK wide backstop. Of course it didn't work out but it wasn't because they feared no deal that they moved 5/

So at every stage there is no evidence that threatening no deal (say in an interview) or giving a hard line speech warning of dire consequences is going to have any positive impact on the negotiations. Realistically both approaches are for domestic consumption. 6/

What has generated moves before in the negotiations is context. Whether that be pressure from Parliament or desire from EU leaders to move on. The concerning things this time is that the context is not moving in a positive direction for a deal. 7/

On UK side there are now no constraints on a No 10 which seems increasingly comfortable with no deal, not least as it sees it being lost in Covid impact. While on EU side there is simply fatigue & focus is on more important things elsewhere. 8/

Next week now looks to be another round of negotiations wasted, with no progress likely. Both sides have played the run up to this week wrong & their posturing will only have resulted in the other side digging in more strongly. 9/ ENDS

But I really don't think it will. Because it rest on the presumption that this No 10 have the same view of no deal as the EU which we know they don't. It will simply cause them to dig in more.