A strong rebuttal for @DFBeanCounter about his Fournette projection.

I respect your work my guy, but Rojo isnt dead yet, and I present my, well, long..... (sorry) rebuttal https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1302447942825988102

While I know you're an analytics guy, I feel as though you miss the game of football in this thread.

1st, the kickoff is in 7 days. Fournette hasn't been in the building practiced even 1 time.

It takes time to A) learn the most complicated offense in the NFL

B) Get reps and get an understanding of the offense.

Running backs typically dont come into a Bruce Arians offense day 1, master it, and start and become fantasy studs

Rojo was #2 all time in scrimmage yards in a BA offense year 1. He had 1033 yards.

That offense is no

Joke to learn and takes time.

Week 1, Fournette will be irrelevant. Week 2, probably so. Maybe week 3 if he starts to grasp it he gets a bigger role

Week 1 and 2, Jones has the opportunity to ball out and "keep his job" essentially

But let's say he struggles for some reason

Week 3 Fournette comes in and gets the majority of the work (mind you, this would be INSANELY FAST)

He isnt getting the 3rd down work. Thatll still be split between Jones and McCoy.

As you noted in your thread, it takes time for Brady to trust you

So with that,

We have an offense that is hard to learn and a QB that needs to trust you. That immediately caps the ceiling

You also mentioned Jones's "best share" of carries was 42%. That's not indicative of him or his "ceiling" that issue was gamescript related.

What do I mean?

When you have a QB constantly turning the ball over, you're behind alot, what do you do when youre behind alot, drop back and sling it.

You're using LF baseline of 66% but that's irrelevant, why? Former team, different offense, and then as you noted prior in your thread

RB1s workload declines when they move team. We cant use 66% (carries) for him, not decline it, when you mention their work typically drops switching teams.

I feel as though we have to be consistent. Your mathematical average you say they drop when switching teams is 4.08%

So theoretically, Fournette, in best case scenario, if he comes in day 1 and has that playbook down, is looking at 61.92%

That feels super specific and impossible to predict. But its much more likely he is minimally involved week 1, 2, and maybe 3?

That 61% plummets real fast

Rojo in 19 with BA while posting 1000+ scrimmage yards on 41% touches was really, really efficient and his metrics back that up.

This thread completely just assumes Rojo shits the bed and disappears day 1.

He could, but I'm not betting on that. Neither should you

Here's a good reminder why.

https://twitter.com/FFBallAllDay/status/1260978218036756485?s=20

Now, I get it if you or anyone doesnt like him.

I'm not even sure what to expect moving forward. My best estimated guess?

Its going to go 1 of 2 ways.

1. Rojo balls, keeps his job, Fournette rotates in and out

2. Rojo is okay, Fournette learns the offense as the season goes on and gets more and more work.

So let's say 2 happens for the sake of arguing

Fournette is "the guy" hypothetically in week 6. You mention early Rojo keeps "his share" and McCoy and Jones are still the passing down backs. He better be Rojo efficient to be fantasy relevant, we have a long history of him being very, well, not that.

You then brought up target share. If or when he becomes the 3rd down back, no one knows. Could he? Yeah but itll be later in the season.

You mention 620 projected passing attempts, but BA normal history is in the mid 500s when he was in Arizona.

Why was the passing attempts stupid high last year then? Well, they had a QB we mentioned earlier who turned the ball over alot which turned it into shootouts. Brady wont do that. They have a good defense.

Better game scripts = more rushing attempts.

I also want to add another piece. You talk about Brady and how he likes RBs. We have a 20 year sample of him wanting multiple different RBs.

He raves of Rojo. So if were sticking with the narrative of Brady has a say in the offense.... there wont be a workhorse

It would be foolish to say Fournette landing in Tampa Bay doesnt hurt Jones's upside. It does.

And if you're BA, you have to go get Fournette. Hes cheap, you're trying to win a Super Bowl NOW, and hes a solid player. You can never have enough good players

So for Fournette to be a fantasy super star,

Rojo better suck, he better be extremely efficient, and he better learn that Calculus like playbook, now. They kick off in 7 days.

I rest my cast/rebuttal