1/ Wasn’t careful lol, all we heard from Team Apocalypse for three months was that Europe had locked down long enough to crush the curve and get test-and-trace in place and that’s why it could reopen schools when the US couldn’t. https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1302215472415297536
2/ Here’s what is happening in Spain - and may well happen in France and Italy. They had VERY localized and severe epidemics - around Madrid and in northern Italy. They locked down VERY hard and relatively early. But not early enough.
3/ So they wound up with the worst of both worlds - lots of deaths (they all had severe problems with nursing homes, too) - but no herd immunity. The Spanish national study came in around 6%, shockingly low - much lower then Sweden, for example.
4/ Now they’ve unlocked for a while, and guess what... virus gonna virus. But without admitting it, these countries have decided that one way or another they are getting to herd immunity. They have understood the lessons of Sweden and the Sunbelt. Lockdowns are off the table...
5/ And so they will have another wave of hospitalizations and deaths. How bad will it be? I don’t know - hopefully they are somewhat protected because of the first wave. But they will have some for sure.