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For a report by scientists, the Covid modelling report released by the Victorian government is disturbingly full of hyperbole, misinformation & unevidenced assertions. It reads like political spin, not science. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/victoria-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-modelling/12633906
For example: “Stratospheric levels of demand for intensive care occurred and much could not be met.”
This is simply untrue in Western countries, apart from maybe a small region of Italy. Even NYC didn’t need rapidly commissioned extra ICU beds.
This is simply untrue in Western countries, apart from maybe a small region of Italy. Even NYC didn’t need rapidly commissioned extra ICU beds.
“In Victoria, cases peaked at just 104, of which 48 were acquired through local community transmission. Some of these people will live with permanent disability arising from COVID-19.”
“Some” not quantified here but “permanent disability” exceedingly rare globally.
“Some” not quantified here but “permanent disability” exceedingly rare globally.
“Modelling showed ... 58k Victorians would have been infected on the worst day of the pandemic. 10k would have needed intensive care.”
Modelling which failed to match what happened elsewhere where the virus spread much more.
Modelling which failed to match what happened elsewhere where the virus spread much more.
On Spain’s “second wave”: “hospitals are reaching capacity again”.
Not because of COVID patients as the numbers of seriously ill & dying have been exceedingly low.
Not because of COVID patients as the numbers of seriously ill & dying have been exceedingly low.
France’s second wave: “A national lockdown has not been ruled out.”
Actually it has been (repeatedly since July). https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8701111/Frances-health-minister-rules-lockdown-country-records-record-daily-peak.html
Actually it has been (repeatedly since July). https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8701111/Frances-health-minister-rules-lockdown-country-records-record-daily-peak.html
Plus France’s second wave also not causing high levels of serious illness.
“The introduction of Stage 4 restrictions helped us speed things up, and cases are now halving every 18 days: more than twice as fast.”
This is asserted but no proof is provided. Data on lockdown stringency versus outcomes globally continues to fail to prove a causal link.
This is asserted but no proof is provided. Data on lockdown stringency versus outcomes globally continues to fail to prove a causal link.
This report is the work of scientists who have prostrated themselves to politics. It will be a twisted joke on the Victorian public if this obvious example of spin is used as “scientific” justification for continuing socially destructive lockdowns.
