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Last week, following heavy press coverage of vigilante violence at protests, several analyses relied in part on my research to suggest Biden was likely to take a hit. A compelling new piece from @ThePlumLineGS shows that hasn’t happened. Why might that be?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/04/latest-polling-suggests-trumps-campaign-strategy-may-be-imploding/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/04/latest-polling-suggests-trumps-campaign-strategy-may-be-imploding/
First, some key numbers from @ThePlumLineGS: “A CNN poll finds that 58% of Americans say Trump’s response to the protests has been ‘more harmful,’ while only 33% say it’s ‘more helpful.’” 2/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/04/latest-polling-suggests-trumps-campaign-strategy-may-be-imploding/
An ABC/Ipsos poll finds:
— 55% of Americans say what Trump has said about protests “makes the situation worse”
— 42% say either that it has had little effect (29%) or has made things better (13%) 3/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/04/latest-polling-suggests-trumps-campaign-strategy-may-be-imploding/
— 55% of Americans say what Trump has said about protests “makes the situation worse”
— 42% say either that it has had little effect (29%) or has made things better (13%) 3/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/04/latest-polling-suggests-trumps-campaign-strategy-may-be-imploding/
Trump is clearly imitating Nixon’s 1968 campaign strategy and running aggressively as the candidate of “law and order.” Nevertheless, “55% say Joe Biden would do a better job keeping the country safe.” Why? 4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/31/trumps-vile-tweetstorm-reveals-ugly-core-his-law-order-campaign/4/
One largely overlooked detail from 1968 is that three candidates were on the ballot. On “order” Nixon was perceived by the public as a moderate, between liberal Hubert Humphrey and segregationist George Wallace. 5/
In 1968, the American National Election Study asked subjects about the ”best way to deal with the problem of urban unrest and rioting.” The scale ran from (1) “correct the problems of poverty and unemployment” to (7) ”use all available force.” 6/
These three plots show how Black and White subjects rated each candidate on the unrest scale. Notice that the modal rating of Nixon by Whites was dead center. The candidate who is rated highest on “use force”? Segregationist George Wallace. 7/
There are, of course, other important differences between 1960s and today. Then, there was significantly more protester violence & state repression. In some events, 100s of buildings were set on fire. In others, dozens of citizens were killed by police and National Guard. 8/
Today, following years of #BlackLivesMatter 
protests, issues of policing and racial justice are taken seriously by a much larger share of mass public. In addition, video of state and vigilante violence offers critical context for activist’s concerns. 9/
protests, issues of policing and racial justice are taken seriously by a much larger share of mass public. In addition, video of state and vigilante violence offers critical context for activist’s concerns. 9/
For 50+ yrs, GOP has owned “law & order” yet today, as @ThePlumLineGS shows, Biden appears to be candidate of “safety.” From Lafayette Park to Portland, Trump fails to understand that violent rhetoric & images of crackdowns portray him less as Nixon and more as Bull Connor. fin/
For more on my research about protests, see this thread. https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1265709670892580869
For more on why media coverage of protests matters, see this thread. https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1269357041316818945
Historian @LarryGlickman notes another important difference: Nixon was savvy enough to use implicit appeals while Trump’s rhetoric tends to have the subtlety of a foghorn. https://twitter.com/LarryGlickman/status/1302328807412715520
For more context on rise of contemporary White Power movement, see this thread. https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1300126685128462337
Consistent with prior data, @kabir_here shares new polling from @CBSNews that finds on protests, “Biden said by more to be trying to calm situation, while Trump said by more to be trying to encourage fighting.” https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1302615037777981440
