A big fall in the number of new cases and deaths per day with accompanying announcement of a vaccine will likely be the #OctoberSurprise.
#COVID19

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The likely fall in the number of new cases and deaths is not a result of great national leadership. But simply natural course, similar to patterns in most hotspots.

200,000 lives lost is an irreversible tragic loss. Deaths could have been >70-80% lower with good leadership.

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I’ve written about the possible trajectory of new cases before. I hope for our country that cases and deaths go down. We have suffered more than most countries: deaths, morbidity, heartaches, loss of life, burnout and stress of frontline healthcare workers, jobs. https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1291044042046935044

The drop in cases and deaths is the result of preventive measures that public have naturally gotten used to (masks and distancing) and the slow rise in percent of population that is not susceptible which I believe is underestimated by the best serology tests. https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1294968202875805697

I have been an ardent proponent of vaccines. I believe vaccines are the endgame. Waiting for a good and effective vaccine is the wise strategy.

I support expanding the current phase IIIs greatly in hotspots, & manufacturing in large quantities in preparation for a win.

But I don’t support declaring a win and making a vaccine prematurely available to public based on inadequate data.

The vaccine call should be made by the FDA based on phase III data, and data alone.

Cases will decrease if you slow testing. But even if otherwise, cases & deaths are still likely to drop. Partly due to masks & distancing. Partly due to immunity (crossreactive from prior corona virus infections, or from unrecognized SARS CoV-2 infection) https://www.inforum.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6582429-What-if-more-of-us-have-fought-off-COVID-19-than-we-think

And even if cases go up, deaths will likely decrease considerably. Why? 1) Low viral dose due to masks and distancing that people do regardless of what authorities mandate. 2) Younger ages affected. 3) We have learnt how to manage severe COVID better. https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1299453556710412290

And this figure thanks to @hendrikstreeck

School reopening, & the start of fall may cause second waves. I’m hoping this doesn’t happen. We have witnessed too much sorrow and heartbreak.

It is highly IMPORTANT to continue social distancing, universal masks, hand hygeine: WE cannot be complacent. We cannot relax.