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What's going on in Europe? Is there a 2nd wave? What can we expect in the coming weeks? Thread.
Europe had a terrible 1st wave, beat it at the beginning of the summer, but wasn't careful and cases are back up.
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Europe had a terrible 1st wave, beat it at the beginning of the summer, but wasn't careful and cases are back up.
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France and Spain have passed the number of official cases from their first waves.
This doesn't reflect reality: in the 1st wave there was little testing.
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This doesn't reflect reality: in the 1st wave there was little testing.
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But it tells us where we're going. And we're not going in the right direction.
If we look at prevalence (active cases per inhabitant), we see that Spain has *more* cases than the US.
France and Croatia, which also depend on tourism, are getting there fast.
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If we look at prevalence (active cases per inhabitant), we see that Spain has *more* cases than the US.
France and Croatia, which also depend on tourism, are getting there fast.
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This was entirely predictable.
The E.U. reopened borders on July 1st. They shouldn't have.
Most EU. countries never learned to dance. When cases went up, they didn't know to test-trace-isolate, and they couldn't control outbreaks.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-reopen-travel-safely-f5951dfe06f0
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The E.U. reopened borders on July 1st. They shouldn't have.
Most EU. countries never learned to dance. When cases went up, they didn't know to test-trace-isolate, and they couldn't control outbreaks.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-reopen-travel-safely-f5951dfe06f0
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We can't forget that this is not only about deaths. We keep getting reports that there might be life-long conditions from this virus. Here's yet another one
https://twitter.com/KSchafheutle/status/1301989459135811585?s=20
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https://twitter.com/KSchafheutle/status/1301989459135811585?s=20
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But what about deaths? Thankfully, they are still way lower than where they used to be. Ppl say this means cases don't matter.
Will it last?
For starters, look at the bottom right in Spain. Deaths are starting to go up.
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Will it last?
For starters, look at the bottom right in Spain. Deaths are starting to go up.
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But also, in the US they also thought deaths had decoupled from cases... Until they realized they hadn't
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![But also, in the US they also thought deaths had decoupled from cases... Until they realized they hadn't[7/14]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhJjn4RU4AAYL8H.jpg "But also, in the US they also thought deaths had decoupled from cases... Until they realized they hadn't[7/14]")
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Thankfully, deaths are not going back to where they used to. It's a combination of factors:
1. More testing so more cases identified, whereas deaths tended to be identified already
1. More testing so more cases identified, whereas deaths tended to be identified already
2. Younger ppl being infected. Might be connected to the previous, since we might just be catching them now. This accounts for ~2/3 of the gap
3. New treatments: proning, dexamethasone, remdesivir, vitamin D might be halving deaths https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1282951791861092353?s=20
3. New treatments: proning, dexamethasone, remdesivir, vitamin D might be halving deaths https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1282951791861092353?s=20
4. Lower viral load because of masks and social distancing
5. Simply a delay in deaths.
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1282951799226261505?s=20
So the cases, deaths and possible lifetime consequences are coming to Europe.
[10/14]
5. Simply a delay in deaths.
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1282951799226261505?s=20
So the cases, deaths and possible lifetime consequences are coming to Europe.
[10/14]
What should we do? Here's what we should NOT do: Lockdown.
Ppl keep talking about lockdowns vs. no lockdowns, as if we were still in March. We've learned since then. Using the same tools would betray governments' ineptitude.
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Ppl keep talking about lockdowns vs. no lockdowns, as if we were still in March. We've learned since then. Using the same tools would betray governments' ineptitude.
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No, what they should do is Dance.
Most countries aren't.
Where are they reporting their number of contact tracers? Their contacts traced?
The % success rate?
The # of ppl dedicated to enforcing isolations & quarantines?
The # of fines applied?
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Most countries aren't.
Where are they reporting their number of contact tracers? Their contacts traced?
The % success rate?
The # of ppl dedicated to enforcing isolations & quarantines?
The # of fines applied?
[12/14]
Where are their measures to improve ventilation? Recommendations to meet outdoors, even for kids' schools?
Where are they reporting mask usage?
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Where are they reporting mask usage?
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After countries applied a Hammer, many didn't learn to Dance. With the same conditions emerge the same results. Until they learn to Dance, they will face ongoing cases, deaths, lifelong conditions, and a hurt economy.
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