I post this chart from time to time. It's the long term ratio of Nasdaq to silver. $COMPQ / $SILVER at http://stockcharts.com . It's very trendy and already 33% off the highs made earlier in 2020. It closed solidly below most short and medium term moving averages.

Here's a zoomed in view of recent years which I believe are showing a major top transforming into a long term down trend for the Nasdaq to silver ratio.

3/ Some of my conclusions:
* not long term bullish for stocks
* dip buying strategies for gold and silver, not stocks
* Trump is a weak-dollar president and likely to exacerbate this trend
* a rising interest rate cycle is what I'm watching for to reverse this trend (years away)

4/ I'm not worried about paper vs physical debates. We're a long way off from that being a problem. The most likely cause for paper to stop being traded for physical is the US losing a world war scenario and being straight up conquered and dismantled. Today this is unthinkable.

5/ I suspect the best way to benefit personally from a downtrend in the nasdaq to silver ratio is with deep out of the money long dated bull call spreads on $SLV and $VXX. For $VXX, being very tactical and only trading "in season" will be important.

6/ Continuing $SILVER thread from last night. When you're long silver, the $GOLD / $SILVER ratio is important to watch. In metals bull markets silver will tend to outrun gold, causing this ratio to drop. The fundamentals story for silver diminishes the lower this ratio gets.