Nikkei explained nicely on today’s front page how Suga became the sudden favorite to lead the LDP and become Prime Minister post-Abe. I’ll summarize below for those who are interested.

This is Nikkei’s analysis, though I agree with it.
#JapanPolitics
1/XX
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO63482520U0A900C2MM8000/ https://twitter.com/dwvcd/status/1302029066992668672

First, before the single-seat Lower House system, a non-faction member couldn’t have done this. Before, multiple LDP factions each ran their candidate in the same multi-seat districts. So factions chose candidates and funded them. The LDP was essentially multiple parties.
2/XX

The power of factions in this system fostered heavy flows of shady money and special interest power. But amid LDP dominance of govt, it also provided some of the only (meager) political diversity within cabinets.

The single-seat system was meant to weaken factions. It did.
3/XX

Back to Suga. He became a LH rep in 1996 w/the first single-seat-era class. He did not avoid factions, but quit the Koga Faction in 2009.

In the meantime, the LDP had gained the power to choose candidates and fund them (one big reason Abe stayed powerful so long, btw).
4/XX

Nikkei says that the shift in political power dynamics from the dispersed factions to the centralized LDP enabled Suga’s rise. I agree.

In Suga’s case, it starts with Abe and Aso, their respective power, and their preference for a non-Ishiba Abe successor.
5/XX

Abe and Aso saw Kishida as the likely successor, and any observer of Japanese politics could see over the last year or two that he seemed to be progressing toward it. He was Foreign Minister. He was LDP Policy Research Council Chairman. He headed a faction.
6/XX

Then COVID-19 hit. LDP Policy Research Council Chair is coveted and frequently a springboard to big things, but isn’t a position where one can demonstrate their govt response chops. Abe worried Kishida wouldn’t beat Ishiba; he was warned the Hosoda Faction vote might split.
7/XX

Aso heard similar warnings. In other words, the most powerful figure in each of the two biggest factions were forced to change horses due to the leaning of the overall LDP, which was lukewarm on their preferred Kishida.

Only in the single-seat era could that happen.
8/XX

With Kishida fading due partly to his inability to grab the spotlight during C19 (and IMHO due to being a very unexciting figure in the eyes of the general public), Abe and Aso had only one choice to prevent Ishiba from winning: Suga.
9/XX

Kono Taro (of the Aso Faction) was on Abe’s mind as a potential disruption to a smooth transition. Nikkei says Abe asked Aso in August about Kono. Aso replied that Kono needed more experience to be a solid PM, and dutifully tamped down Kono’s ambitions this time around.
10/XX

At that, Abe moved to announce his resignation on August 28, with Suga in mind as his successor.

Suga was ready. He pounced on the opportunity the very next day, securing the support of the next most important power broker Nikai by phoning for an immediate sit-down.
11/XX

With Abe, Aso, and Nikai behind Suga, the remaining factions in play (i.e. other than Kishida’s and Ishiba’s)—Takeshita & Ishihara—fell into line quickly, to salvage opportunities for power in a Suga Cabinet. Non-faction MPs (64 of them) backed fellow independent Suga too.
12/XX

There’s an interesting part of the Nikkei piece that illustrates a new—maybe *the*—primary role of factions: Getting their members positions.

So, Nikai jumped fastest to publicly endorse Suga, putting his faction visibly on the Suga bandwagon first.
13/XX

We don’t know how explicitly and early the Hosoda, Aso, and Nikai factions decided privately to back Suga. But Nikai jumped first, ostensibly angling to oblige Suga to give the Nikai faction preferred treatment in the choosing a cabinet, as it was his first big supporter.
14/XX

Nikkei says the 3 factions were very unhappy w/Nikai’s (characteristically) sly maneuver. When the Hosoda, Aso, and Takeshita factions held a joint press conference to announce their support for Suga, they froze out Nikai, who wanted to be part of it. Petty but significant.
15/XX

The article ends w/hedging: New PM has to call a Lower House election by Oct 2021. If their cabinet’s popularity is weak, the factions will again act quickly to jump on the next bandwagon.

In that scenario I think we’ll see Kono, Ishiba, and others making a lot more noise.
16/16

P.S. Forgot to complete the thread numbering. This laziness is why I’ll never measure up to the Mighty Scholars of Japan Politics :)

P.S. #2

Mr. Sharp to the rescue with the English version!

I’ve added some between-the-lines elements to my selective summary, so be sure to read this official version.

And let us pay for well-reported news. https://twitter.com/sharp_writing/status/1302062457007951872