1/9 Covid Epi Weekly: Stalling and Failing

Continued spread of Covid in the US will continue to undermine health, jobs, economy, and education. A concerted, strategic approach would help, a lot. Fundamental error: Failure to recognize we’re all connected, all in this together.

2/9 CovidView positivity inched up from 5.4 to 5.5%, driven by increase among 18-49-year-olds. Low levels in northeast, some others, but still not finding most sources, not quarantining most contacts, so risk remains. High or increasing rates in most of US, too high for recovery.

3/9 Two data sources of note. County-specific test positivity, which should be open source but at least is available here (image below, wish they had zip code lookup). https://bit.ly/2F3wBmX  And we’re delighted to work on the Covid Symptom Data Challenge. https://bit.ly/3201H83 

4/9 Deaths and hospitalizations continue to decrease overall. But 500-1,000 deaths/day is horrific. These also reflect approximately a quarter of a million infections per day a month ago (so we’ve only been detecting about 1 in 5 infections). We need to make much more progress.

5/9 There were 215,000 more US deaths March-July than baseline. Of these, 71% diagnosed as Covid by their doctor. Remainder undiagnosed Covid and also deaths from Covid-disrupted care. Covid-disrupted care is an even greater risk in Africa and elsewhere. https://econ.st/2WOS9d4 

6/9 Imagine how many fewer deaths the US could have had if we’d focused right. One example: masks vs. hydroxychloroquine. Masks work. Places that used consistently had half to two thirds less spread. 100,000+ deaths could quite possibly, simply, and cheaply have been prevented.

7/9 Good news on steroids. Confirmation: they help with severe Covid. The sicker you are, the more they help, up to a 35% reduction in risk of death. Yes, really, 35%. Nice review of all key data by WHO. Yes, really, WHO. Press conference, anyone? https://bit.ly/2ERYeQd 

8/9 Guardedly optimistic we’ll have evidence of a safe and effective vaccine in next few months. Need to look at all data. Efficacy is more likely to be proven early than safety. Can’t stop epidemics without trust, and not politicizing data and decisions is essential for trust.

9/9 It ain’t over until it’s over. Continuous improvement of data on testing, isolation tracing, quarantine. 3W’s: Wear a mask, Watch distance, Wash hands. Smarter limitations on activity to balance jobs and health. Vaccine preparations including cold chain, community engagement.