@ohcapideas @foxcastlehold @frenchcmunger @chriswmayer @GWInvestors @foso_defensivo
@valueDACH @vitaliyk @LuchesiPhilippe @evantindell
@erickoop3 @smallandvalue @off_the_run
You know $BOL. Quick thread on why it has been 'bad,' and one dead simple way to make it, uh, 'good.'

Why has $BOL been a poor stock since the (good) 2015 @muddywatersre report? Many reasons incl. but not limited to: (1) '15 HAV for BOL shares destroyed >10% value, (2) some legal issues (Africa & France), (3) ongoing large BlueBiz losses, (4) Redburn drops (5) EMkts disliked..

(6) VIV 25%-30% crusade 'okay' but adds debt even when buyback better, (7) Debt recently down, boosted by sale of WiFirst/Gaumont/French Ports, etc. but almost no (recent) structural 'simplification.' VIV consolidation actually makes 'appearance' more complicated, which blows...

(8) Paying down the debt at $ODET with Divs received from $BOL has been 'good' but prevents Divs from having 'circled.'

Key: At 1H20, debt at ODET is zeroed out! Yay! Now, even without any BOL/ODET structural simplification, ODET 'can' sync Divs OUT with Divs In & let them flow!

Besides you guys, nobody is ever going to understand the $BOL structure. But... they don't need to. BOL shares ran up on a doubling of the 2014 Div, which has been stubbornly flat for 5 years. If Div flow is opened beyond the ODET gate, BOL can easily 2x the dividend again.

Below, I show that $BOL could (probably) raise the gross dividend by ~67% to €0.10 in 2021, but the net dividend could still fall ~18% to €141m, as 52% of Divs could be returned through the main ownership loops (up from just ~3% returned in 2019). See below. Make sense?

#Endgame structural simplification (BOL/ODET, etc.) would be really nice... but in the meantime, why not just go for something super simple that will not (really) cost much: Raise The Dividend!

I realize that raising the dividend does nothing to increase 'intrinsic value per share,' but it will generate some attention, which is (eventually) necessary.

Happy Friday!