Thread geolocating the launches and analyzing the effectiveness of the 1st iteration of Ansar al-Tawhid's #Burkan rocket

For background on the #Burkan start here
https://twitter.com/MMissiles2/status/1301959171219353600?s=20

The 1st #Burkan design was used twice, once on 07/31/2019 in NW #Hama & once on 08/25/2019 in SE #Idlib. I was able to geolocate the launch site and confirm the target of each of these - giving us a rough idea of its range and effectiveness on these two occasions

The 1st launch (07/31/2019) was reported that morning on Telegram as having targeted the Regime-held village of al-Hakoura, in the al-Ghab Plain, NW #Hama. Later that night, #AaT released a video on TG titled "And He Will Heal the Souls of the Believers" (AHWHSB) [Qur'an 9:14]

"AHWHSB" is 00:55 long and shows #AaT transporting, erecting, & launching the #Burkan in a field behind a building. The launch is filmed from multiple angles, and the final shot shows the explosive cloud caused by the impact. The TG post confirms this is the #Burkan's first usage

16 days later, #AaT released another video on TG called "Pulling the Trigger." It's 02:41 long, is set over the nashid “Lions of Allah,” and shows #AaT's participation in the Opposition artillery & rocket campaign targeting Regime and #Russia|n forces in late July 2019

"Pulling the Trigger" also includes footage of what is clearly the 07/31 #Burkan strike on al-Hakoura, but includes new angles as well as a clear shot of the village that's being targeted - which I geolocated and confirmed as al-Hakoura

Next, using a few frames from both videos, I was able to geolocate the launch site to the Northeast of al-Hakoura in the village of al-Mansoura

I also got lucky with a cool confirmation that I had the correct site. Google Earth happened to have a picture of this area from just *4 days* after the launch, and the burn scar from the launch is still visible on the ground behind the building

With the launch site and target geolocated, it actually gives us an idea of the #Burkan's range on its first launch: ~4.72 km.

This is under 25% of the range of an unmodified 9M22U Grad, but this isn't surprising, bc despite x4 thrust they increased the throw weight by far more

The next question is accuracy. Grads aren't accurate to begin with, and my (pretty safe) assumption is that all this modification degraded the #Burkan's accuracy even more

This is reinforced by my suspicion that they may not actually have hit their target the 1st time

While there's a potential match for the explosive cloud seen in "AHWHSB" and "Pulling the Trigger," that's not really enough evidence for me

The cloud in "Pulling the Trigger" looks a bit small compared to explosions caused by the #Burkan shown in future releases too

In a previous release, #AaT also made a big deal about the al-Hameem #IRAM maybe killing #Russia|n troops, & you would expect them to follow that precedent with their flashy new #IRAM, but both videos avoided mentioning anything concrete about casualties or material damage

I also couldn't confirm any Regime casualties in that village on 07/31/2019

So I can't definitively say whether or not the #Burkan hit its target on its first usage, but I'm relatively confident that it flew roughly 4.7 km from al-Mansoura towards al-Hakoura

The 2nd launch (08/25/2019) was reported that morning on TG as having targeted the #Russia|n artillery in al-Baraghithi, North of Abu Duhour, SE #Idlib. Later the next night, #AaT released an untitled video on TG that I refer to as its original file name "BurkanNew2"

The video is 00:41 long, follows roughly the same format as "AHWHSB," & features a virtually identical #Burkan. The only caption throughout the video also matches its TG post naming the target as al-Baraghithi

Notably, the impact is also much more visible than in "AHWHSB"

Using a few frames from the video (one of which I had to brighten in a photo editor), I was able to geolocate the launch site West of al-Baraghithi in the village of Mas'adah

Here are the annotated frames -

And here are the annotated aerials of Mas'adah -

For further confirmation (in lieu of a burn scar this time), here are perspective shots using the satellite imagery imitating the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th annotated frames.

This gives us a range of ~6.17 km for the #Burkan's 2nd launch

30.85% the max range of an unmodified 9M22U Grad, & a 30.72% range increase from the 1st launch

There's also evidence to suggest it actually hit its target this time

The impact and explosion shown of this launch actually includes imagery of the ground, and using the highway I was able to confirm that the #Burkan likely hit al-Baraghithi, potentially near what look like artillery positions shown next to the highway on Google Earth

Unlike the 1st launch, #AaT also explicitly claimed "direct hits" this time too

So I'm giving the first iteration of the #Burkan a very tentative 50% success rate. But with *just 2 data points,* more info about the effects these specific strikes had is needed to be conclusive

I will do more about the overall effectiveness of these #AaT #IRAM|s, incl other designs of the #Burkan going forward

Also look out for more coming from @cbtfreelancers on these #IRAM|s and others in the future

h/t @QalaatAlMudiq @NoorNahas1 @CalibreObscura @SchoenbornTrent

@azelin @Charles_Lister @GregoryPWaters

cc @AnalystMick @Jake_Hanrahan @sommervilletv @obretix @trbrtc @EliotHiggins @KhalilDewan @N_Waters89 @EllemanIISS @lprubin73 @fab_hinz @DuitsyWasHere @dex_eve @AmySchenk4 @MountainGuerri1 @FoxallResearch @MollyWeston16