"In DSGE models ... economic system is assumed to behave like a consumer with fixed preferences over how much they wish to consume ...
This is equivalent to attempting to model the behaviour of a colony of ants by constructing a model of one large ‘average’ ant." - @JoMicheII https://twitter.com/DrCameronMurray/status/1049042739948449793
Great discussions mostly sparked by Klein, Matthew C., and Michael Pettis. 2020. Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace. Illustrated edition. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300244175/trade-wars-are-class-wars.
Leading to that most excellent debate in mid-Aug:
Jain Institute. 2020. Geoeconomics and the Balance of Payments. .
Earlier this year:
Mian, Atif R, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi. 2020. “The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt.” Working Paper 26941. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26941 .
In which we learn that Mundell-Fleming IS/LM/BP model is not #stockflowconsistent. Oops. Why should we care?
Why should we care? @michaelxpettis nails that Pettis, Michael. 2015. “Thin Air’s Money Isn’t Created Out of Thin Air.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (blog). October 19, 2015. https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/61679.
Why should we care that Mundell-Fleming IS/LM/BP model is not #stockflowconsistent? @PMehrling nails it:
Mehrling, Perry. 2012. “Maynard’s Revenge: A Review.” Institute for New Economic Thinking (blog). 2012. https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/maynards-revenge-a-review.
Hawtrey, R. G. (Ralph George). 1919. Currency and Credit. London, New York [etc.] Longmans, Green and co. http://archive.org/details/currencycredit00hawtrich.
is chock full of wisdom: "[he] saw financial instability as the abiding tendency of credit markets" (Merhling)
Back to #globalfinancialflows & the #balanceoftrade / #balanceofpayments, is it true that:
Pettis, Michael. 2019. “Washington Should Tax Capital Inflows.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (blog). August 6, 2019. https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/79641?
BIS asks: did global current account imbalances contribute to the GFC?
Borio, Claudio, and Piti Disyatat. 2011. “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Link or No Link?,” May. https://www.bis.org/publ/work346.htm.
Wrong excess?
"We conjecture that the main contributing factor to the financial crisis was not "excess saving" but the "excess elasticity" of the international monetary and financial system"
Also:
Borio,& Disyatat 2015. “Capital Flows and the Current Account: Taking Financing (More) Seriously” https://www.bis.org/publ/work525.htm.
questions the appropriateness of analytical frameworks that focus on CAs or net capital flows for assessing the pattern of cross-border capital flows
Also at @UWEBristol the #criticalmacrofinance project @DanielaGabor, @JoMicheII @YannisDafermos et al explain that globalised finance is the dominant force in modern capitalism
@DanielaGabor explains to @DavidBeckworth & us:
Beckworth, David. n.d. “Macro Musings: Daniela Gabor on Financial Globalization, Capital Controls, and the Critical Macrofinance Framework.” https://macromusings.libsyn.com/daniela-gabor-on-financial-globalization-capital-controls-and-the-critical-macrofinance-framework.
Wrong glut? https://twitter.com/DanielaGabor/status/1294164565899587584
... that to understand global conflicts owe more to divisions within countries than between them (Pettis & Klein's perspective) goes back to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperialism_(Hobson)
So much to read!
We have not succeeded in answering all our problems. The answers we have found only serve to raise a whole set of new questions. In some ways we feel we are as confused as ever, but we believe we are confused on a higher level and about more important things
/end
For the excellent discussion of international trade and financial flows back in Aug, thanks to
@JWMason1
@MonaAli_NY_US
@DanielaGabor
@izakaminska
@M_C_Klein
@michaelxpettis
@Brad_Setser
@jonsindreu
@colbyLsmith
@NathanTankus
@adam_tooze.
Happy Labour Day weekend.
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