A resurgence of #COVID19 is being seen across the world as governments relax the restrictions. Despite this, a general observation I have made is that @MoH_Somalia MoH updates since July 1 are NOT indicating a second virus wave in Somalia. Instead, the numbers are dropping.

This thread compares the spread of COVID-19 in Somalia to its three immediate neighbours according to the official numbers released by their respective health institutions.

The first cases of the virus were confirmed in the four East African countries in March. The figures stood at 5 (Somalia), 30 (Djibouti), 26 (Ethiopia), and 59 (Kenya) at the end March. By the end of August, total cases were 3,310, 5,387, 48,140, and 33,630, respectively.

Somalia lifted restrictions on local flights on July 5th, Kenya resumed local flights on July 15. Djibouti resumed *international* flights on July 17. Kenya and Somalia unsuspended international flights on August 1 and 3. Somalia reopened schools and universities on August 15.

While Somalia reopened, restrictions remain in place in Kenya and Djibouti. Yet, the numbers from the past two months show the monthly surge has been dropping fast in Somalia. Compare to Ethiopia, which has similarly relaxed restrictions, and see how the numbers are increasing.

Meanwhile, you might see Kenya and Djibouti have also witnessed a decline of the monthly surge since July 1. This is because they are still in lockdown (partially at least). Furthermore, Somalia’s detection rate is far behind the rest due to limited resources.

Interestingly, Somalia's numbers started to decline right after the country entered a period of political uncertainty. In July, the monthly rate of the reported cases dropped 71% from June. In August, the cases further dropped 65.97%. No deaths were reported since July 12. https://twitter.com/somalianewsroom/status/1301531078436573189